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UK recession explained: What mortgage interest rates rise means for my savings

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The Bank of England has increased its base rate 0.5 percentage points to 1.75 per cent, the biggest interest rate hike in 27 years and its sixth rise since December 2021.

Its Monetary Policy Committee announced the move today, with eight members out of nine voting in favour of the hike. 

The five previous base rate increases since December 2021 each raised it by a smaller 0.25 percentage points, taking it from 0.1 per cent to 1.25 per cent, before the move today.

Today’s 0.5 percentage point hike is the biggest jump since 1997 when responsibility for the base rate was handed from the Government to the Bank of England.

Rate rise: The Bank of England has increased the base rate of interest by 0.5% to reach 1.75%

Rate rise: The Bank of England has increased the base rate of interest by 0.5% to reach 1.75%

The aim is to get a grip on the soaring inflation which continues to drive up the price of everyday essentials such as food, fuel and energy bills.

But the move will increase the cost of new fixed-rate and existing variable rate mortgages. 

Experts have said that repayments on the typical mortgage have now increased by hundreds of pounds per year since the base rate rises began. 

Banks and building societies may choose to up their savings rates slightly due to the base rate increase, although since the base rate began rising in December 2021 most have failed to increase savings rates to a comparable level.

Why is the base rate going up?

The Bank of England has now increased the base rate six times since December 2021, going from 0.1 per cent to 1.75 per cent, in a bid to bring down inflation.

The base rate determines the interest rate the Bank of England pays to banks that hold money with it and influences the rates those banks charge people to borrow money or pay people to save.

By raising the base rate, it will hope to make borrowing more expensive and saving more lucrative for Britons.

This in theory should encourage people to spend less and save more and therefore help to push inflation down, by dampening the economy and the amount of money banks create in new loans.

Still rising: The Bank of England has said CPI inflation could reach 13% in the next few months

Still rising: The Bank of England has said CPI inflation could reach 13% in the next few months

At its simplest, inflation is the percentage increase in the cost of goods and services over the course of a year. 

The Bank of England said today Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was likely to hit 13 per cent in the next few months, blaming increases in the cost of energy.  

CPI is the measure against which the Government sets its inflation target, currently at 2 per cent.

Yesterday, think tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research warned that the retail prices index, a separate measure of inflation, could hit 17.7 per cent by the end of the year.

RPI is no longer an official statistic but it is used to set rail fares, student loans repayments and some payments to the Government.

High inflation is a problem because it usually indicates that prices are rising at a faster level than people’s incomes. It also makes it difficult for businesses to set those prices and for households to plan their spending.

What does it mean for mortgages?

The typical cost of a mortgage has been pushed up by successive base rate rises. 

During the pandemic house buying boom in 2020 and 2021, interest rates reached record lows with some deals priced at below 1 per cent – but now the cheapest fixed deals are charging more than 3 per cent.

According to fresh analysis by the financial information service Moneyfacts, the average two-year fixed mortgage rate is now 3.95 per cent. In August 2020, it was just 2.08 per cent. 

Similarly, the typical five-year fix has now surpassed the 4 per cent mark to reach 4.08 per cent – up from 2.34 per cent in August 2020. 

With the base rate having risen, these averages are set to increase further.  

Cecilia Mourain, managing director for homebuying at the finance app Moneybox said: ‘Lenders will hike mortgage rates straight after a Bank of England rate rise, but we’ve seen that typically they will come down again, ever so slightly, in the following weeks as lenders continue to compete for business.’

However, how this rise affects borrowers depends on the type of mortgage they have.

On the rise: Average mortgage rates have been increasing since 2020

On the rise: Average mortgage rates have been increasing since 2020

For those not on fixed rates the Bank of England decision brings another increase, the third this year, and even those on fixed rates will face increased interest rates when their term ends.

Simon Gammon, managing partner of estate agent Knight Frank’s finance arm, said: ‘Mortgage rates are now changing on a daily basis and lenders are giving borrowers and brokers little notice about repricing.

‘Some homeowners who are nearing the end of their terms are facing a shock when they come to refinance, because they are unable to borrow as much as they hoped, [and some of] those who are looking to buy are realising once-obtainable properties are now out of reach.’

According to Moneyfacts, the typical standard variable rate mortgage is now at 5.17% interest

According to Moneyfacts, the typical standard variable rate mortgage is now at 5.17% interest

Variable rates

Mortgage holders with a discount deal, or a base rate tracker mortgage will see their payments increase immediately.

As rates have fluctuated over the past year fewer borrowers are choosing variable rates, opting instead for fixed mortgages as a security against the rises.

Those on their lender’s standard variable rate (SVR) will also likely see rates rises over the coming weeks. According to Moneyfacts, the typical SVR is now at a rate of 5.17 per cent. For someone with a £200,000 mortgage, a rise of 0.50 per cent would add approximately £1,400 onto total repayments over two years.

Rising repayments: These figures show how much monthly repayments could rise on a typical standard variable rate mortgage, if the rates were increased 0.5% in line with the base rate

Rising repayments: These figures show how much monthly repayments could rise on a typical standard variable rate mortgage, if the rates were increased 0.5% in line with the base rate

It is thought that around 12 per cent of mortgages are currently on a standard variable rate, according to UK Finance.

According to credit app TotallyMoney, someone with an average UK home costing £270,708 and a variable rate mortgage on a 25 per cent deposit faces paying £196 per month more than in November last year, once the 0.5 per cent hike is factored in.

Those on SVRs who are able to switch to a fixed product could save thousands by doing so. 

According to Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts, the cost savings to switch from the typical SVR (5.17 per cent) to the typical two-year fix (3.95 per cent) is a difference of approximately £3,333 over two years, based on a £200,000 mortgage. 

Increases: The cost of owning a home is set to rise for some, as interest rates on new fixed-rate mortgages and existing variable rate ones will likely go up

Increases: The cost of owning a home is set to rise for some, as interest rates on new fixed-rate mortgages and existing variable rate ones will likely go up

Fixed rates

Fixed-rate mortgages are the most popular choice for homeowners in the UK, with around three quarters of residential borrowers opting for one.

Analysis by L&C Mortgages prior to the rise showed that the average of the keenest two-year fixed rate mortgages now stands at more than two per cent higher than it was at the beginning of the year.

Fixed-rate mortgages do not automatically track the base rate rise, but lenders will usually increase rates for new applicants to some degree.  

 While those on fixed rate deals will be sheltered from interest rate rises for the duration of their mortgage term, around half are expected to expire in the next two years

Those already on a fixed rate mortgage will not immediately feel the effect of the rise, as they are locked into their existing rate until the term ends.

However, the the rate hike will make it more expensive for those looking to remortgage. Around half of all fixed mortgage deals are set to expire in the next two years. 

Brian Murphy, head of lending at Mortgage Advice Bureau said: ‘While those on fixed rate deals will be sheltered from interest rate rises for the duration of their mortgage term, around half are expected to expire in the next two years. 

‘Some may therefore consider lengthening their mortgage terms or even overpay on their mortgage to help them with payments over the long term.’

You can browse rates and find the best mortgage deal for you using This is Money and broker L&C’s tool. 

First-time buyers further squeezed 

First-time buyers may particularly struggle with the rate rises, as they typically earn less and have larger mortgages than people higher up the property ladder.

Rightmove has calculated that, with the 0.5 per cent rate hike, a first-time buyer with a £224,943 home on a 10 per cent deposit mortgage on a two-year fix would see monthly mortgage payments increase to an average of 40 per cent of their gross salary, a level not seen since 2012.

 With each jump in interest rates, homeowners are contributing approximately 1 per cent extra of their gross salary on average towards a mortgage

Tim Bannister, Rightmove 

Prior to today, it said the average monthly mortgage payment for a first-time buyer household was £976. This had already increased by 20 per cent since January 2022 when it was £813.

Given the rate rise this will now increase to an average of £1,030, taking it from 38 per cent to 40 per cent of the average gross salary – a level not seen since 2012.

A 10 per cent deposit on an average first-time buyer type home is now £22,494, which is 57 per cent higher than ten years ago (£14,316) and the average asking price of a first-time buyer home is at a record of £224,943.

Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s housing expert, said: ‘With each jump in interest rates, home-owners are contributing approximately 1 per cent extra of their gross salary on average towards a mortgage.

‘Average mortgage rates for a two-year fix are just over 3 per cent compared to nearly 6 per cent ten years ago, so they are still historically low.

‘However, as they creep upwards, the large number of first-time buyers looking to move this year may look for some financial certainty by locking in longer mortgage terms.’

Will it stop people moving home?

While the base rate has been gradually increasing since November, house prices have continued to rise, stoked by sustained demand from home buyers and movers. 

According to Nationwide’s house price index, published this week, house prices rose 11 per cent in the year to July, up from 10.7 per cent in June, with the typical home now worth £271,000. 

Nathan Emerson, CEO of estate agent industry body Propertymark, said: ‘Buyers will be watching interest rates very closely, but the gradual nature of their upward trajectory from a historically low base is unlikely to be a factor that on its own has too much of an effect on the confidence of those who are serious about moving.

House price boom: Nationwide's house price index recorded an 11% rise in year to July

House price boom: Nationwide’s house price index recorded an 11% rise in year to July 

‘Potential buyers registering with our member agents have outnumbered new property listings throughout the first six months of the year, and by seven to one in June alone. 

‘During the same period the Monetary Policy Committee has raised the base rate four times.’

However, others say that further mortgage rate rises and increases in the cost of living will eventually deter some home buyers. 

Responding to the Nationwide index, leading estate agent Knight Frank said big rises in new mortgage rates meant ‘a slowdown is in the post’ for the property market. 

What does it mean for my savings?

While it is potentially bad news for mortgage borrowers, the base rate rise will be welcomed by savers who have endured rock-bottom rates for years.

Were savers to see a 0.5 percentage point rise passed onto them, someone with £20,000 put away would receive £100 more a year.

However, savers are being advised not to expect an instant improvement to savings rates, but rather a gradual rise over the coming weeks and months.

James Blower, founder of the Savings Guru said: ‘The rate hike means that we will see interest rates on savings continue to increase gently in the coming months.

‘It won’t mean we suddenly see a 0.5 percentage point increase in best buy rates, as these are already well ahead of the base rate, but we will see fixed rates continue to increase in the coming weeks.’

In other words, it will mean more of the same. The five previous base rate rises have seen rates ticking upwards over the past eight months.

Gradual rise: The base rate increase should bring slightly higher interest rates for savers

Gradual rise: The base rate increase should bring slightly higher interest rates for savers

This time last year, the average easy-access rate was just 0.18 per cent, according to Moneyfacts. Now it has risen to 0.69 per cent.

The top of This is Money’s independent best buy tables has been a hive of activity, with new market-leading rates to report almost every week.

The best easy-access deal now pays 1.8 per cent – three times more than the best rate this time last year.

The best one-year fixed deal pays 2.85 per cent, and the best two-year fix pays 3.15 per cent – the highest seen in about a decade, according to Moneyfacts.

That said, at the bottom of the savings market rates have moved little and in some cases not at all.

It has been clear that many of the big banks have no inclination at present to fight for saver cash or play fair on rates.

For example, Barclays still offers just 0.01 per cent on easy-access cash. This is just 10p on each £10,000 saved.

HSBC, Lloyds bank, NatWest and RBS all pay 0.2 per cent on their easy-access savings accounts.

Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts says: ‘Loyal savers may not be benefiting from the base rate rises and they could be missing out on a better return if they fail to compare deals and switch.

‘Interest rates are rising across the savings spectrum. However, out of the biggest high street banks, only one has passed on all five base rate rises before now, which equate to 1.15 per cent, and some have passed on just 0.09 per cent since December 2021.

‘The patience of some savers may be wearing thin, but there is no guarantee they will see any benefit from a base rate rise.

‘Keeping abreast of the top rate tables is essential and there is little reason for savers to overlook the more unfamiliar brands if they have the same protections in place as a big high street bank.’

On the up: The best rates on easy-access accounts have now reached 1.5% or even higher

On the up: The best rates on easy-access accounts have now reached 1.5% or even higher

What about inflation?

There is no denying that rising inflation is decimating the savings Britons have stashed away.

CPI inflation reached 9.4 per cent in the 12 months leading up to June, the highest it has been for 40 years, and the Bank of England is expecting it to peak around 11 per cent in the autumn. 

If the rate paid on savings is below the CPI, savers are effectively losing money in ‘real’ terms.

Even the best easy-access deal paying 1.8 per cent is more than five times lower than the current inflation rate.

Someone saving £10,000 in this account could still expect to see the value of their savings pot in real terms fall by £760.

However, with the value of everyone’s savings falling in real terms it is arguably more important than ever to move cash to the highest paying deals.

Someone with £10,000 sitting in an easy access account paying 0.1 per cent over the past year will have seen the value of their money fall by £930.

Hypothetically, were inflation and savings rates to remain the same, someone with £10k in a 0.1 per cent deal could salvage £170 over the next 12 months by switching to the best easy-access deal.

How high will savings rates go?

We’ve already seen some big milestones reached over the past few weeks and months.

There are now a dozen easy-access providers paying 1.5 per cent or higher, with the market leading rate paying as high as 1.8 per cent.

Blower says: I don’t think we will see easy-access rates breach the 2 per cent barrier over the next few weeks.

‘Al Rayan are an outlier at 1.8 per cent with the rest of the best buy market at 1.55 per cent, but I expect that to change by the end of the week and we will quickly see consolidation of best buy easy-access rates around 1.75 to 1.85 per cent and I think we will see a best-buy with a 2 in front of it in late September or early October.’

As for fixed rates, in June we saw these deals breach the 3 per cent barrier. Since then they have continued onwards and upwards.

The top five-year fixed rate deal now pays 3.4 per cent, whilst even the best two-year deal pays 3.12 per cent.

Blower expects to see more of the same at the top of market over the coming weeks, particularly with shorter fixed term deals.

‘I don’t think long term fixed rates of three years and above will increase too much from here, says Blower. ‘I think the year end best buy five year will still be sub 4 per cent – but short term rates will rise.

‘But I expect the one-year fixed market to break 3 per cent in the autumn and we may see the best two-year deals reach 3.5 per cent.’

Unfortunately, the big banks are unlikely to change their tune though, which means a large proportion of savers will need to take action and move their money to lesser known providers to see any meaningful difference.

The amount held in accounts offering rates of 0.1 per cent or less remains at over £300billion, according to Paragon Bank’s analysis of the latest CACI data, which provides a snapshot of savings deposits held with more than 30 of the biggest banks main banks.

‘Unfortunately I don’t think we will see the big banks increase rates by much,’ says Blower. ‘I think that [the base rate rise] will force them to increase rates from where they are, but I expect them to both drag their heels on it and not pass on anywhere near the full rise.

‘Savers will need to switch to the smaller new entrants and challengers to get a good return on their savings and the financial benefit to do so will now be worth several hundred pounds a year so it is worth taking action on.’

'Just go for it': Savings expert James Blower says those looking for a better rate shouldn't spend too much time trying to 'guess' the market

‘Just go for it’: Savings expert James Blower says those looking for a better rate shouldn’t spend too much time trying to ‘guess’ the market

What should savers do?

With rate rises occurring each and every week at the top of the market, savers may feel cautious about switching due to the danger of missing out on a better deal in the near future.

With rates likely to continue moving upwards driven by competition between challenger banks, savers may be tempted to remain in easy-access deals so as to remain flexible.

However, the gap between the best one-year fix and easy-access account is now in excess of 1 percentage point, meaning now could be a good time to use a fixed deal for 12 months.

Of course, given the cost of living squeeze, it’s all the more important to have some easily accessible money to act as a financial cushion to deal with unforeseen events.

However, for those who already have a financial cushion built up and are not planning on using their excess cash in the near future, then fixed rate savings could make sense.

Blower adds: ‘If you want a fixed rate then don’t spend too much time trying to guess the market, just go for it because you’ll never call the top of it right and you’ll likely miss out on more interest trying to time the market than you’ll gain by timing it right.

‘The best one year fixed is over 1 percentage point higher than the best easy access, and that is enough of a premium to fix for that term, but I wouldn’t go beyond that.

‘If rates continue to rise, savers still have time to fix again next year at potentially higher rates when maybe a longer term will look more rewarding.’

Best mortgage rates and how to find them

Mortgage rates have risen substantially as the Bank of England’s base rate has climbed rapidly.

If you are looking to buy your first home, move or remortgage, it’s important to get good independent mortgage advice from a broker who can help you find the best deal. 

To help our readers find the best mortgage, This is Money has partnered with independent fee-free broker L&C.

Our mortgage calculator powered by L&C can let you filter deals to see which ones suit your home’s value and level of deposit.

You can also compare different mortgage fixed rate lengths, from two-year fixes, to five-year fixes and ten-year fixes, with monthly and total costs shown.

Use the tool at the link below to compare the best deals, factoring in both fees and rates. You can also start an application online in your own time and save it as you go along.

> Compare the best mortgage deals available now

Some links in this article may be affiliate links. If you click on them we may earn a small commission. That helps us fund This Is Money, and keep it free to use. We do not write articles to promote products. We do not allow any commercial relationship to affect our editorial independence.

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Greige is the new hot colour for your home – here’s how to follow the trend

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Neither beige, nor grey — it’s ‘greige’. And you may have noticed the colour is gracing walls, floors and furnishings this year.

The combination of warmth and elegance offered by the tone can create a soothing yet dynamic space and is now a go-to neutral.

The key is to use it as an anchoring palette — a springboard for other, confident colours within your scheme.

Boldly neutral: A bathroom painted in greige tones from Little Greene. Greige can ground a space and counter potential garishness

Boldly neutral: A bathroom painted in greige tones from Little Greene. Greige can ground a space and counter potential garishness

‘Greige is often used as a safe colour, layered with other neutrals, but I like to use it to provide balance,’ says interior designer Rachel Niddrie. 

‘Try it as a backdrop or woven into a scheme to showcase bold textures, pattern and colour — on vibrant rugs, artwork and accessories.’

Combined with contrasting materials, greige can ground a space and counter potential garishness.

‘It works beautifully with dusky pinks as well as royal blues, teals, lime green and navy,’ says Rachel.

‘One of my favourite fabrics is No. 9 Thompson’s Ninfea Mania in Blush or Royal. Featuring painterly lilies on a loose weave, it can be used for curtains, sofas and chairs. The Blush has a greenish-grey in the pattern and a pearl oyster background that perfectly tones with greige.’

Add glamour

The shade is versatile, too, offering several decorative directions. ‘Monochrome accents add eye-catching detail, while metallic accessories will introduce understated glamour and bring warmth to the overall look,’ says Amanda Huber, founder of The Dining Chair Co.

‘If you are more daring, why not complement a neutral backdrop with beautiful printed linen upholstery on sofas or dining chairs? You can pick accent colours from the print and introduce them elsewhere to add energy to the scheme.’

Getting just the right shade of greige requires a considered eye.

‘As with any neutral or white, whether it is warm or cool, depends on underlying hints of warm pink or cool blue,’ says Justyna Korczynska, senior designer at Crown. ‘Red tones elsewhere in your scheme can be complemented with a warm grey-beige, while cooler blues, deep greys and greens work with a cooler grey.’

Also, the light in the UK can seem flat, which affects our perception of colour.

‘Natural light can be limited in homes, making us crave something warmer than a straightforward grey,’ says Helen Shaw of Benjamin Moore. ‘Our Revere-Pewter (HC-172) is a classic warm grey that co-ordinates with more natural greys like steel, concrete, glass, pebbles, driftwood — even cloudy skies.’

There are many ways to make this classic tone contemporary. ‘One of my top tips is to pair greige with raw plastered walls,’ says Space Shack’s Omar Bhatti. ‘This produces a lovely combination of soft colour and contrasting texture, which adds character.’

Mix it up

‘Don’t be afraid to mix materials,’ says Collection Noir’s Samantha Wilson. ‘Timber looks beautiful when accompanied with limewashed walls, occasional metal details, soft linens and textured ceramics.’

All these elements are a softly modern way to work a classic greige. Bear in mind some of the most beautifully balanced and welcoming interiors are based on a subtle palette of beiges and greys.

Texture: Sofa.com’s Ginger armchairs in Champagne luxe boucle costs £1,045

Texture: Sofa.com’s Ginger armchairs in Champagne luxe boucle costs £1,045

‘The key is to layer and to remember that ‘neutral’ extends far beyond creams and sandy hues,’ advises King Living’s design studio. ‘It also incorporates olive, earth tones, red-based hues and deeper browns — all of which pair with a beige-grey base to create a timeless scheme.’

Avoid a flat finish, instead opt for unexpected texture. Try sofa.com’s Ginger armchairs in Champagne luxe boucle (pictured), £1,045.

Pooky’s Empire gathered lampshades in Flashman printed cotton, £56, add elegance.

Bring greige walls to life with Carpetright’s Mardi Gras 576 Estrella Vinyl. The encaustic tile-style flooring works beautifully in otherwise neutral utility rooms. 

A graphic rug such as H&M Home’s Patterned Pile rug, £149.99 peps up a greige sitting room, too.

Calming vibe

The desire for warm, zen-like spaces is growing, making greige both a lifestyle and design choice.

Omar Bhatti has painted his apartment in Little Greene’s Mushroom. ‘I used it on wall, doors, architraves and skirting and combined it with deep blue kitchen cabinetry,’ he says. ‘It is very calming.’

Combined with natural fibres, timbers and earthy colours, it creates a sense of balance and understated luxury.

‘The look is easily achieved,’ says Samantha Wilson. ‘Whether you accessorise with woven planters or linen cushions, throws, tablecloths, or jute and flatweave rugs.’

Versatility is key to this — it works just as well with earthy tones as jewel hues, but it always contributes to a timeless, cocooning interior. Just what many of us crave.

Savings of the week! Leaning mirror

Light on the wallet: Dunelm offers the Moroccan mirror for £105

Light on the wallet: Dunelm offers the Moroccan mirror for £105

A long, leaning mirror has several key benefits. It makes any room look larger, optimises the light and requires no DIY skills: you simply prop it against the wall. Do so carefully and you will look slimmer and more lissom.

Snapping up a bargain will enhance your feeling of wellbeing. At Dunelm, there are styles for every decor, reduced by 30 per cent, including the gilt-framed Midi (£42), the Moroccan (£105) and the Apartment (£91), which has a loft-living vibe.

The Range also has a wide selection, such as the Regency whose price has been cut by 20 per cent to £87.99; its ornate gilt frame is very Bridgerton.

Cotswold Company offers an arched mirror in a moody black frame, down from £179 to £149.

Rose & Grey has a large black Art Deco mirror, reduced from £595 to £505.75, which would look good in a 1930s house, and a black paned mirror that’s now £191.25, down from £225, which could be deployed in the garden.

Anne Ashworth 

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Birmingham’s property market boosted by the Commonwealth Games

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The huge, bold mechanical bull that roared into the Birmingham arena at the opening ceremony of the Commonwealth Games could be a suitable metaphor for the city’s property scene.

‘There are so many positive things that have ridden on the back of the Games taking place here,’ says Andrew Oulsnam, director of Robert Oulsnam and Company, and the owner of 11 estate agencies around the city.

‘We’re seeing lots of increased investment, with prices rising substantially over the past year and a half. The Games have given us a “feelgood factor” which I am sure will spread beyond the event itself.’

Onto a winner: Birmingham's Victoria Square before the Games. Properties in the City are 60% lower than those in London

Onto a winner: Birmingham’s Victoria Square before the Games. Properties in the City are 60% lower than those in London

Warming to his theme, he says: ‘Even now, in August, there is a change; more interest from buyers — when traditionally, the summer months are not the best time for the property market. I’m optimistic about the future.’

The shift in Birmingham’s fortunes started with the proposals for the HS2 project, which, when completed in 2033, will cut journey times to London to under an hour. This encouraged large companies such as HSBC, which has moved its UK headquarters to the city.

Since then, PwC and Goldman Sachs have followed.

International estate agents are selling properties abroad, while at the same time several infrastructure projects have transformed Birmingham into a safe, energetic and culturally diverse city — and a young one, with under-25s accounting for nearly 40 per cent of the population.

This has added to the vibrancy, and the reason why many emerging industries such as technology innovation and life sciences have started up. It is also a shoppers’ city, with 1,000 retail outlets within a 20-minute walk of the centre.

And then there are the prices. Properties in Birmingham cost 60 per cent less than those in London.

 Universally now, living in Birmingham is seen in a positive light

Estate agent Philip Jackson 

‘The pandemic meant many people working from home appreciated the importance of having some outside space,’ says Lynda Williams, branch manager at Kings Heath estate agency.

‘I have clients who moved from London, selling their small flats for typically £500,000 and getting a lovely Victorian house and garden with original features, for the same money here.’

Philip Jackson, director of Maguire Jackson, deals with city centre properties and has seen the positive impact of the Games.

‘There is no doubt that the extra attention focused on Birmingham is helping the property market.

‘The Commonwealth Games, bringing 72 teams from all over the world, is a nice step on the HS2 journey,’ he says.

‘Rental prices over the past 12 months have increased by five to ten per cent, and universally now, living in Birmingham is seen in a positive light.’

He says the famous Jewellery Quarter is like Clerkenwell in central London 20 years ago, with controlled conservation of historical buildings, giving residential property an interesting vibe.

Intriguingly, too, this is where all the medals for the Commonwealth Games were made. Philip says the typical renter is a contract worker aged 25 to 35.

At the same time, the sales market is also steadily growing inside the Jewellery Quarter, where modern warehouse conversions of one-bedroom flats are going for £185-£200,000 and two bedrooms from £220,000 to £500,000.

Ian Ward, leader of Birmingham City Council, is naturally proud of the enthusiasm and the success the Games have brought. 

One of the legacies is 1,000 new homes being built in the north of the city at Perry Barr, next to the main stadium.

‘It has cost us £184 million to put on the Games and the Government matched it three times. Now, we have levered a billion pounds of investment into the city on the back of that,’ says Mr Ward. ‘We couldn’t afford not to have them.’

On the market… in our second city 

Wharfside Street: This two bedroom penthouse is in the city centre. There is access to a residents’ gym and the building has private parking. n Fineandcountry.com, 0121 272 600 £400,000

Wharfside Street: This two bedroom penthouse is in the city centre. There is access to a residents’ gym and the building has private parking. n Fineandcountry.com, 0121 272 600 £400,000

H0dge Hill: There are three bedrooms in this semi-detached home, on the outskirts of Birmingham, which also has a conservatory and a garage. n Shipways.co.uk, 01217 210 563. £230, 000

H0dge Hill: There are three bedrooms in this semi-detached home, on the outskirts of Birmingham, which also has a conservatory and a garage. n Shipways.co.uk, 01217 210 563. £230, 000

 

Wychall Road: Following a complete renovation, this three bedroom detached house has a newly fitted kitchen/diner, bathroom and off-road parking. n Ardenestates.co.uk, 01217 217 734. £299,950

Wychall Road: Following a complete renovation, this three bedroom detached house has a newly fitted kitchen/diner, bathroom and off-road parking. n Ardenestates.co.uk, 01217 217 734. £299,950

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Mortgage interest rates: Families on fixed rates face paying thousands more

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Millions of homeowners are facing a ‘mortgage time bomb’ as their fixed-rate loans come to an end, experts have warned, after the Bank of England imposed the fastest interest rate rise since 1997 and experts predicted it could hit 4% or more by the end of the year.

The decision came as Governor Andrew Bailey also predicted the UK will collapse into a year-long recession by the end of 2022 – its longest since the 2008 financial crisis and as deep as the one in the 1990s.

His doomsday warning also said that inflation will now be peaking at more than 13% – 11% above his own target – stoked by the soaring price of gas and fuel this winter. 

The Bank announced a 0.5 percentage point interest rate rise yesterday – the biggest increase in 27 years – in a bid to control spiralling inflation. Its base rate, which banks use to set mortgage costs, is now at a 13-year high of 1.75 per cent, up from 1.25 per cent. Around 2million homeowners with tracker or variable rate loans face eye-watering mortgage bill hikes as a result. 

New PM will have to find BILLIONS more to support households as inflation soars to highest level since the 1970s

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank, has said the new prime minister is going to need to find billions to support households and public services.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme about the 13% inflation forecast, he said: ‘It will have to some extent in the short run a positive impact if prices and, to some extent, wages are going up much faster than expected. There’ll be more tax revenues coming in.

‘But the thing that I find remarkable about the Conservative leadership debate is that they don’t seem to be talking about the things that’s really going to be in need of public finances.

‘The first is, of course, they’re going to have to find many more billions to support households. I mean, this is a much bigger increase in energy bills than was expected even a few months ago when the support packages were announced, and that’s not going to be helped by the sorts of tax cuts that are being talked about.

‘Secondly, of course, there’s going to need to be more money for public services – the health service education and so on – because with inflation at 13%, and pay rises there in the 5-6% range, that means that the level of increases that were put in place this year and announced a year ago are looking far too small, because that was done in the expectation that inflation will be 3-4%.

‘So, we’re looking at potentially big real-terms cuts to some of the public services, which are really struggling at the moment.’

 

Borrowers locked into cheap fixed deals will be shielded from any immediate increase in bills after the Bank of England yesterday hiked its base rate. But when they expire they face paying thousands of pounds more a year at a time when most other household bills are also soaring.

Borrowers with a typical £150,000 mortgage on the average standard variable-rate will have to pay an extra £44 a month, or £528 a year, according to figures from broker L&C Mortgages. Those with £400,000 home loans will need to find an additional £131 a month, or £1,572 a year. 

This is Money’s mortgage comparison calculator can help you work out how much your monthly payments would rise by and show the loans that you could potentially apply for, based on your home’s value and mortgage size.    

Today Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey denied claims he had failed in his job and had been ‘asleep at the wheel’ as he faced a ferocious backlash after admitting inflation will pass 13 per cent – 11 per cent above his own target. 

As the BofE was dubbed the ‘Bank of doom and gloom’, Tory leadership favourite Liz Truss insisted last night that a recession is ‘not inevitable’. She said: ‘We can change the outcome and we can make it more likely that the economy grows.’ Rishi Sunak claimed interest rates would reach as high as 7 per cent under his rival Liz Truss’s proposals. He also predicted the UK will collapse into a year-long recession by the end of 2022.

Critics said Bank officials including its £575,000-a-year boss should ‘rue the day’ they decided not to raise interest rates last year and last night Attorney General Suella Braverman said interest rates ‘should have been raised a long time ago and the Bank of England has been too slow in this regard’.

And amid some calls for him to resign, Mr Bailey told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘If you go back two years, which is, given the monetary transmission mechanisms, where we’d have to go back to, given the situation we were facing at that point in the context of Covid, in the context of the labour market, the idea that at that point we would have tightened monetary policy, you know I don’t remember there were many people saying that.’ 

As Mr Bailey set out the grimmest economic predictions for Britain in 60 years, it also emerged:

  • House prices fell in July for the first time in more than a year as rising borrowing costs add to the squeeze on household budgets;
  • Experts warned that millions of homeowners are facing a ‘mortgage ticking time-bomb’ as their fixed deals come to an end and rates rise;
  • Banks were again accused of cashing in on rate hikes by being quick to pass on increases to borrowers but dragging their feet when it comes to savings rates;
  • Struggling households face even more frequent energy bill hikes after watchdog Ofgem ruled the price cap should be changed every three months rather than twice a year;
  • It emerged that Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and his deputy, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke, are both away from their desks as Britain faces dire economic warnings;
  • Unemployment predicted to rise from 3.7% to 6.3% in the next three years;
  • Bank of England predicts inflation will still now be above 9 per cent in a year’s time – peaking at 13 per cent by the end of 2022 or early 2023; 

Deflation: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey denied he had been ‘asleep at the wheel’

Deflation: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey denied he had been ‘asleep at the wheel’

Inflation is now outstripping levels seen since the 1980s and appears to be out of control

Inflation is now outstripping levels seen since the 1980s and appears to be out of control

The Bank of doom and gloom

The Bank of England’s gloomy picture of the state of Britain’s economy over the coming years:

RECESSION

The economy will shrink for 15 months, starting in October, wiping 2.1 per cent off the UK’s output from peak to trough. The recession will be as long as the downturn during the 2008 financial crisis, although less severe.

INFLATION

The rise in the cost of living is set to peak at 13.3 per cent in October – the highest since 1980 – and remain high through much of 2023 as prices continue to rise. Most of this will be driven by the effects of the war in Ukraine.

ENERGY

As western countries try to shun Russia’s fuel supplies, and the Kremlin turns the gas tap off, energy prices are rocketing. The average household’s annual energy bill will rise to £3,450 when the next price cap rise is pushed through in October – worse than expected.

INCOME

Households’ real income – which takes into account inflation – will fall for two years, the first time this has happened since records began in the 1960s.

INTEREST RATES

The Bank has pushed up its base rate by 0.5 percentage points, the largest hike in 27 years, to 1.75 per cent. While this should help to keep a lid on prices, it will also cause more pain for mortgage holders and other borrowers as the cost of their debt climbs.

Experts have said the rises should have started much earlier – and as a result predictions that it will hit 3% to 4% by the end of this year ‘may not be sufficient’, one former BofE executive said today.

Commentator and senior member of the Institute of Economic Affairs, Christopher Snowdon, said last night: ‘If my only job was keeping inflation at 2% but inflation was 9% and I expected it to rise to 13%, I’d like to think I would have the decency to resign, even if I was earning £575,000 a year’.

Business leaders were also irritated by Mr Bailey’s pessimism. Advertising tycoon Martin Sorrell said: ‘Nobody was expecting that today – he’s rung the alarm bell and predicted a recession.’ He described the interest rate hike as ‘too much, too late’, adding: ‘It’s grim and we’re in for a really rough time.’ Gerard Lyons, of wealth manager Netwealth, said the ‘downbeat’ message delivered by Mr Bailey was ‘a reflection that the Bank of England is suffering from a self-inflicted credibility gap’. 

Andrew Bailey has admitted that rocketing inflation ‘concerns me most’ amid political criticism over the speed of actions taken by the bank to tackle the current economic turmoil.

‘We are in the centre of things because of what is going on in the world at large and the impact that is having on inflation, and that’s what concerns me most at the moment,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

‘Central bank independence is critically important in our view, but our job is to get inflation back down to target.

‘I think it’s important that there is a full debate during this process to choose the next prime minister of this country.

‘It is clearly very important that public officials like I do not intervene in this debate and I am not doing that.

‘We have strong views, of course, but I look forward to working with the new Government and new prime minister, and sure we will have substantive exchanges on this.’

Food, fuel, gas and numerous other items are rocketing in price following the pandemic and the war in Ukraine – hitting record levels – but some economists have claimed that the BofE has been too slow to act as Britain careers towards recession. 

Anyone with a fixed rate deal will be protected from rate hikes until the end of their term. But around 1.8million fixed rate mortgages are scheduled to end next year, according to banking trade body UK Finance.

David Hollingworth, of broker L&C, estimates that around half of loans currently arranged on fixed rates will expire in the next two years.

Adrian Anderson, director at broker Anderson Harris, warned: ‘We have a mortgage interest rate ticking time bomb scenario. Around 74 per cent of mortgages are fixed.

‘However, it is likely these borrowers will be moving on to much higher rates at a time when many other outgoings have already increased.’

The lowest two-year rates from the top ten lenders have more than doubled since December, according to L&C.

The average two-year fixed deal is now at 3.46 per cent, up from 1.35 per cent – which works out at £1,952 a year more for a typical borrower with a £150,000 mortgage. The average five-year deal has also risen from 1.54 per cent to 3.5 per cent over the same period, L&C’s data showed.

Many lenders also came under fire for pre-emptively increasing the price of mortgages ahead of the Bank of England announcement yesterday. On Monday, Hinckley and Rugby Building Society increased its standard variable rate to 6.44 per cent.

Halifax has raised its fixed rate deals by 0.4 percentage points, Lloyds by 0.27 and HSBC by 0.25. The Co-operative and Platform have both withdrawn their three and five-year fixed rate deals in the last two days, and Post Office Money has removed its mortgage range entirely.

The Bank of England predicts a year-long recession and near zero growth in GDP until after 2025

The Bank of England predicts a year-long recession and near zero growth in GDP until after 2025

Slides predict that the upcoming recession will be as long as the one in 2008 - but not as deep as that one or others in the 1970s, and 1980s. It will be similar in depth to the one in the 1990s

Slides predict that the upcoming recession will be as long as the one in 2008 – but not as deep as that one or others in the 1970s, and 1980s. It will be similar in depth to the one in the 1990s

The Bank of England’s own inflation predictions the price of fuel, gas and good will push up costs even more in 2024

The Bank believes that inflation will peak at the end of the year or early 2023 and drop again by 2025

The Bank believes that inflation will peak at the end of the year or early 2023 and drop again by 2025

Santander announced yesterday that its standard variable rate was rising by 0.5 percentage points to 5.99 per cent. 

Laura Suter, head of personal finance at AJ Bell, said: ‘Families are being hit by rising bills from all angles, whether it’s rising food costs, an increase in the price to heat their home, hikes in childcare costs or bigger bills for filling their tanks. Another increase in mortgage costs may be the straw that breaks the family budget.’

Meanwhile, banks have been accused of being quick to pass on increases to borrowers yet dragging their feet when it comes to rewarding savers.

Some, including Lloyds and NatWest, revealed last week that they have increased their net interest margins – the difference between what they earn from borrowers and pay savers – by 10 per cent or more. 

The Bank of England has increased interest rates from 1.25 per cent to 1.75 per cent

The Bank of England has increased interest rates from 1.25 per cent to 1.75 per cent

A Cornwall Insight forecast shows the energy price cap will stay higher than £3,300 from October to at least the start of 2024 and could even hit £4,000

A Cornwall Insight forecast shows the energy price cap will stay higher than £3,300 from October to at least the start of 2024 and could even hit £4,000

The Bank of England has predicted that inflation will reach 13% in the coming months

The Bank of England has predicted that inflation will reach 13% in the coming months

NatWest has passed on the full 1.15 percentage point rise to homeowners on its standard variable rate, but upped its Instant Saver rate by just 0.19 points to 0.2 per cent.

Barclays has also passed on the full increase to borrowers, but customers in its Everyday Saver account still earn a derisory 0.01 per cent.

Newcastle Building society has pledged to pass on the full base rate rise to the majority of savers from August 25. 

Santander will increase rates on some accounts from September 1. But its easy-access eSaver 18, now closed to new customers, will rise from 0.05 per cent to just 0.1 per cent.

ALEX BRUMMER: In choppy seas, does the Bank have the right captain?

By Alex Brummer for the Daily Mail 

Tough times are coming. That is the conclusion we should draw from the Bank of England’s extraordinary actions yesterday: Raising the base rate of interest by a full half-percentage point – the highest jump in 27 years – while making dire forecasts about our economic future.

Can we draw any comfort from the grim prediction that the surge in the cost of living will continue throughout next year and into 2024, and that inflation could soar as high as 13.3 per cent this winter?

We can. The Bank’s blundering Governor, Andrew Bailey, has been wrong in most of his forecasts up to this point.

His credibility is badly shot – and he may have overstated the problem. But you don’t have to take my word for it.

EY, the audit and consulting giant, argues that the UK ‘economy will perform better than the Bank predicts’ and accuses the Bank’s inflation forecasts of ‘resting on limited foundations’. 

The Bank’s blundering Governor, Andrew Bailey, has been wrong in most of his forecasts up to this point. His credibility is badly shot – and he may have overstated the problem. But you don’t have to take my word for it

The Bank’s blundering Governor, Andrew Bailey, has been wrong in most of his forecasts up to this point. His credibility is badly shot – and he may have overstated the problem. But you don’t have to take my word for it

Another City firm, Capital Economics, also disputes the Bank’s predictions, saying Bailey’s recession forecasts are ‘deeper and longer’ than its own.

All that helps to explain why Liz Truss, the frontrunner to be our next prime minister, wants to review the Blair-era rules under which the Bank operates independently of the Government.

The Commons’ Treasury select committee is already setting hearings on the topic.

Nevertheless, there seems little doubt that the immediate economic news is less than rosy. Interest rates are predicted to go as high as 3 per cent next year – at the same time that Britain faces its highest tax burden since Clement Attlee’s socialist administration of 1945.

There have now been six monthly interest-rate rises in a row – as many readers with mortgages will have noticed.

Homeowners on ‘tracker’ deals, which rise and fall with interest-rate increases, or on their banks’ ‘standard rate’, have suffered immediate hikes. But perhaps the biggest shock will be felt in the months to come by homeowners coming off fixed-rate deals set two, three or five years ago – when rates in some cases were below 1 per cent.

Online property portal Rightmove estimates that first-time buyers will now face monthly mortgage payments rising to 40 per cent of their gross salaries – a sacrifice not seen for a decade. Savers, who far outnumber people with home loans, have so far seen scant benefit from higher interest rates, even though the value of their bank deposits is being ravaged by high inflation.

Bailey put himself on their side yesterday, requesting that high street banks do the right thing and offer more competitive returns. We shall see if they listen. But many may not – not least because the Bank, under Bailey’s leadership, has come under heavy fire not only for its faulty forecasting, but for its tone-deaf proclamations for workers to show wage restraint (from a Governor who trousered more than £575,000 last year).

Like so much of the public sector, it is also afflicted by the increasing wokery that has seen working from home become entrenched in the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street.

Faced with charges he has been asleep at the wheel as inflation has more than tripled from 4 per cent only a year ago to 13.3 per cent later this year, Bailey’s mealy-mouthed excuse – that the Bank could not have foreseen the war in Ukraine and the extraordinary impact it has had on energy prices – does not wash.

Nor did he offer even a scintilla of a mea culpa yesterday – despite having failed in his clear remit to keep inflation to a 2 per cent target. Bailey should have heeded the stark warning in May 2021 from the Bank’s former chief economist Andrew Haldane, who said that the ‘inflation genie’ was about to escape the bottle.

With the Bank now threatening to ‘act forcefully’ by raising interest rates even faster than expected in the coming months, the case for relieving consumers and businesses from swingeing taxes is even clearer.

Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak has had an overdue Damascene moment and embraced a cut in VAT for motorists as well as a hefty cut in the basic rate of income tax to 20 per cent – but only by the end of the decade.

Liz Truss is prepared to act much faster, promising to rescind the 1.25 percentage point national insurance hike and cancel the vicious rise in corporation tax from 19 per cent to 25 per cent next year.

A tax-cutting budget this autumn will be the only sensible choice if the economy is to escape the double whammy of higher taxes and rising interest rates.

The big concern is that the Bank, having been so wrong about inflation for more than a year, is now doubling down, raising rates at a terrifying speed.

In doing so, it risks squeezing the lifeblood out of an economy that has performed better than many other industrialised nations this year. Our prosperity and employment depend on it steering a safe course through these treacherous waters.

The question is, is Andrew Bailey the right captain for the ship?

Don’t blame me for recession! Bank of England governor hits back at claims he was ‘asleep at the wheel’ as runaway 13% inflation threatens the living standards of hard-pressed Britons battling rising energy, food, fuel and mortgage hikes

  • Critics accuse Bank Governor of failing in his job as recession looms and is predicted to last for a year
  • The Bank also raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to reach 1.75 per cent – raising mortgage rates
  • Governor Andrew Bailey has blamed ‘the actions of Russia’ overwhelmingly for the economic crisis 
  • And denied he was too slow to raise interest rates, claiming it would’ve choked any recovery from pandemic 
  •  BofE predicting that GDP will fall as much as 2.1% while inflation will reach 13% next year in Britain 
  • Forecasts predict that inflation rates will remain throughout next year – bumping up food, fuel and other bills

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey today denied claims he had failed in his job and had been ‘asleep at the wheel’ as Britain careers towards a year-plus recession and faced a ferocious backlash after admitting inflation will pass 13 per cent.

Critics said Bank officials including its £575,000-a-year boss should ‘rue the day’ they decided not to raise interest rates last year and last night Attorney General Suella Braverman said interest rates ‘should have been raised a long time ago and the Bank of England has been too slow in this regard’.

Experts have said the rises should have started much earlier – and as a result predictions that it will hit 3% to 4% by the end of this year ‘may not be sufficient’, one former BofE executive said today.

But amid some calls for him to resign, Mr Bailey told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘If you go back two years, which is, given the monetary transmission mechanisms, where we’d have to go back to, given the situation we were facing at that point in the context of Covid, in the context of the labour market, the idea that at that point we would have tightened monetary policy, you know I don’t remember there were many people saying that.’

But commentator and senior member of the Institute of Economic Affairs, Christopher Snowdon, said last night: ‘If my only job was keeping inflation at 2% but inflation was 9% and I expected it to rise to 13%, I’d like to think I would have the decency to resign, even if I was earning £575,000 a year’.

Business leaders were also irritated by Mr Bailey’s pessimism. Advertising tycoon Martin Sorrell said: ‘Nobody was expecting that today – he’s rung the alarm bell and predicted a recession.’ He described the interest rate hike as ‘too much, too late’, adding: ‘It’s grim and we’re in for a really rough time.’ Gerard Lyons, of wealth manager Netwealth, said the ‘downbeat’ message delivered by Mr Bailey was ‘a reflection that the Bank of England is suffering from a self-inflicted credibility gap’. 

Food, fuel, gas and numerous other items are rocketing in price following the pandemic and the war in Ukraine – hitting record levels – but some economists have claimed that the BofE has been too slow to act as Britain careers towards recession. 

As the BofE was dubbed the ‘Bank of doom and gloom’, Tory leadership favourite Liz Truss insisted last night that a recession is ‘not inevitable’. She said: ‘We can change the outcome and we can make it more likely that the economy grows.’ Rishi Sunak claimed interest rates would reach as high as 7 per cent under his rival Liz Truss’s proposals.

Deflation: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey denied he had been ‘asleep at the wheel’

Deflation: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey denied he had been ‘asleep at the wheel’

MailOnline has laid bare the miserable increases households now face because of interest rates

MailOnline has laid bare the miserable increases households now face because of interest rates

Inflation is now outstripping levels seen since the 1980s and appears to be out of control

Inflation is now outstripping levels seen since the 1980s and appears to be out of control

Rishi Sunak

Liz Truss

Rishi Sunak claimed interest rates would reach as high as 7 per cent under rival Liz Truss’s proposals – while she insisted her plan to cut taxes would fuel economic growth

The Bank of doom and gloom

The Bank of England’s gloomy picture of the state of Britain’s economy over the coming years:

RECESSION

The economy will shrink for 15 months, starting in October, wiping 2.1 per cent off the UK’s output from peak to trough. The recession will be as long as the downturn during the 2008 financial crisis, although less severe.

INFLATION

The rise in the cost of living is set to peak at 13.3 per cent in October – the highest since 1980 – and remain high through much of 2023 as prices continue to rise. Most of this will be driven by the effects of the war in Ukraine.

ENERGY

As western countries try to shun Russia’s fuel supplies, and the Kremlin turns the gas tap off, energy prices are rocketing. The average household’s annual energy bill will rise to £3,450 when the next price cap rise is pushed through in October – worse than expected.

INCOME

Households’ real income – which takes into account inflation – will fall for two years, the first time this has happened since records began in the 1960s.

INTEREST RATES

The Bank has pushed up its base rate by 0.5 percentage points, the largest hike in 27 years, to 1.75 per cent. While this should help to keep a lid on prices, it will also cause more pain for mortgage holders and other borrowers as the cost of their debt climbs.

Mr Bailey shocked Britain yesterday with the gloomiest economic warning for decades. He said the UK will collapse into a year-long recession by the end of 2022 – its longest since the 2008 financial crisis and as deep as the one in the 1990s – with inflation peaking at more than 13% stoked by the soaring price of gas and fuel this winter.

Britain’s big squeeze also got even worse after the Bank raised interest rates by 0.5 per cent to 1.75 per cent – the highest single rise since 1997 – but experts have warned it could reach as high as 3 per cent by the end of the year, adding £1,000-a-year or more to the average non-fixed mortgage in a new ‘world of pain’ for homeowners.

In May, Mr Bailey said workers, particular high earners, should ‘think and reflect’ before asking for high wage increases – a remark which drew criticism at the time. And he appeared to double down today.

He told the BBC: ‘I put this in terms of high pay rises and high price increases, because in that world it’s the people who are least well off who are worst affected because they don’t have the bargaining power, and I think that is something that, you know, I would say broadly we all have to be very, very conscious of.’

It came as grim economic predictions forced the Bank to raise interest rates by 0.5 percentage points – the largest amount since 1995 – to reach 1.75 per cent.

It is a highly unusual move. While higher rates can help to tame prices, they can also slam the brakes on economic growth. The Bank also revised its expectations for inflation to a peak of 13.3 per cent in October. Just two months ago, it was predicting a maximum of 11 per cent.

The Bank said the red-hot inflation will cause the UK to slump into a drawn-out recession, with output shrinking for 15 months from the final quarter of this year until the end of 2023.

Households will see their real incomes, or how much money they make taking into account rising prices, fall by the largest amount on record, it predicted.

The bleak update deepened the Tory leadership contenders’ bitter debate over the best way to repair the economy.

Rishi Sunak claimed interest rates would reach as high as 7 per cent under rival Liz Truss’s proposals – while she insisted her plan to cut taxes would fuel economic growth.

Miss Truss will look at whether the Bank of England was ‘fit for purpose’ if she became prime minister, an ally said.

In other developments:

  • Experts warned that millions of homeowners are facing a ‘mortgage ticking time-bomb’ as their fixed deals come to an end and rates rise;
  • Banks were again accused of cashing in on rate hikes by being quick to pass on increases to borrowers but dragging their feet when it comes to savings rates;
  • Struggling households face even more frequent energy bill hikes after watchdog Ofgem ruled the price cap should be changed every three months rather than twice a year;
  • It emerged that Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and his deputy, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke, are both away from their desks as Britain faces dire economic warnings;
  • Unemployment predicted to rise from 3.7% to 6.3% in the next three years;
  • Bank of England predicts inflation will still now be above 9 per cent in a year’s time – peaking at 13 per cent by the end of 2022 or early 2023; 

Some economists had been calling on the Bank to raise rates since last summer, when signs that inflation was heating up began to emerge.

The Bank did not begin raising interest rates until December. Since then, it has embarked on an unprecedented string of rate hikes at six back-to-back meetings.

Mr Bailey said he had ‘huge sympathy’ for squeezed borrowers, but added: ‘I’m afraid the alternative is even worse, in terms of persistent inflation.’

Attorney General Suella Braverman, who is backing Miss Truss’s leadership campaign, said: ‘Interest rates should have been raised a long time ago and the Bank of England has been too slow in this regard.’ Andrew Sentance, a former member of the Bank’s rate-setting monetary policy committee (MPC), agreed that policymakers ‘have acted too late’.

‘I would have voted in the second half of last year for quicker interest rate rises and bigger interest rate rises,’ he said.

‘In my world, interest rates would have been up to 3 or 4 per cent now – instead we’re at 1.75 per cent. The MPC should rue the day collectively when they didn’t raise rates when they were so low.’

The Bank of England predicts a year-long recession and near zero growth in GDP until after 2025

The Bank of England predicts a year-long recession and near zero growth in GDP until after 2025

Slides predict that the upcoming recession will be as long as the one in 2008 - but not as deep as that one or others in the 1970s, and 1980s. It will be similar in depth to the one in the 1990s

Slides predict that the upcoming recession will be as long as the one in 2008 – but not as deep as that one or others in the 1970s, and 1980s. It will be similar in depth to the one in the 1990s

The Bank of England’s own inflation predictions the price of fuel, gas and good will push up costs even more in 2024

Mr Bailey was defensive when asked if his critics had a point when they said that ‘having been asleep at the wheel, the Bank is now slamming on the brakes at precisely the wrong time’.

He said: ‘No, I don’t think they do. We have been hit – or the world economy has been hit – by very big shocks. And for the UK, that means very big external shocks.’ Mr Bailey insisted that ‘returning inflation to the 2 per cent target remains our absolute priority – there are no ifs and buts about that’.

Tory leadership favourite Liz Truss said that a UK recession was ‘not inevitable’ last night amid warnings of a year of economic woe for tens of millions of Britons.

Facing questions from Tory members in a live TV debate on Sky News she played up her proposals to axe the National Insurance rise and proposed increase in Corporation Tax.

But she faced a wave of hostile questions from Tories, including a former parliamentary candidate who said that Margaret Thatcher would not agree with her.

Ms Truss told the studio audience: ‘What the Bank of England have said is of course extremely worrying but it is not inevitable. We can change the outcome and we can make it more likely that the economy grows.’

She said she would she wanted to keep taxes low and ‘do all we can to grow the economy by taking advantage of our post-Brexit freedom, unleashing investment, changing things like the procurement rules and doing things differently’.

She added: ‘Now is the time to be bold, because if we don’t act now, we are headed for very, very difficult times.’

But later Mr Sunak warned that Liz Truss’ plans will make the dire economic situation worse, warning of ‘misery for millions’ by pouring ‘fuel on the fire’.

The former chancellor told the Sky News debate: ‘We in the Conservative party need to get real and fast because the lights on the economy are flashing red and the root cause is inflation.

‘I’m worried that Liz Truss’s plans will make the situation worse.’

He said he was not ‘promising 10s and 10s of billions of pounds of goodies’ in an apparent swipe at Liz Truss’s plans for tax cuts. He described such an approach as ‘risky’ and said he wanted to ‘be honest’ with the country.

Facing Ms Truss, a woman identified as ‘Jill from Tunbridge Wells’ said she was not happy with her comments on balancing the country’s books, describing the candidate’s proposed policies as ‘not sound economics’.

She told Ms Truss: ‘Liz, I do not want to see my children and my grandchildren encumbered with huge debt at a time of rising interest rates, Bank of England, and at a time of high inflation. The one thing Margaret Thatcher believed in was sound money. This is not sound economics.’

Energy prices will push the economy into a five-quarter recession – with gross domestic product (GDP) shrinking each quarter in 2023 and falling as much as 2.1%. ‘Growth thereafter is very weak by historical standards,’ the Bank said on Thursday, predicting there would be zero or little growth until after 2025.

Bank Governor Andrew Bailey blamed ‘the actions of Russia’ overwhelmingly for the economic crisis and the ‘energy shock’, which will push more households into poverty and also see more people lose their jobs.

He said: ‘Wholesale gas futures prices for the end of this year… have nearly doubled since May,’. They are ‘almost seven times higher’ than forecasts had suggested a year ago, adding: ‘That’s overwhelmingly a consequence of Russia’s restriction of gas supplies to Europe and the risk of further cuts’. 

Consumer Prices Index inflation will hit 13.3% in October, the highest for more than 42 years, if regulator Ofgem hikes the price cap on energy bills to around £3,450, the Bank’s forecasters said this afternoon, predicting that it may not subside from levels last seen in the 1970 and 1980s for several years.

The Bank of England governor said: ‘Domestic inflationary pressures have also remained strong. Firms generally report that they expect to increase their selling prices markedly, reflecting the sharp rise in their costs.

‘The labour market remains tight with the unemployment rate of 3.8% in the three months to May and vacancies at historical high levels.

‘The tightness of the labour market partly reflects the fall in the labour force since the start of the pandemic, which is in part due to the large rise in economic inactivity’.

The dire economic conditions will see real household incomes drop for two years in a row, the first time this has happened since records began in the 1960s. They will drop by 1.5% this year and 2.25%, wiping out any wage rises.

Officials on the monetary policy committee (MPC) raised the base interest rate from 1.25 per cent to 1.75 per cent as experts warned inflation could be heading for 15 per cent. The Bank predicts it will be 13 per cent.

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, argues interest rates may need to rise as high as 3 per cent to tackle inflation.

He told the Telegraph: ‘We think the battle is far from over and that rates may peak at 3 per cent rather than the 2 per cent expected by most economists.’

Professor Stephen Millard agreed rates would have to rise to 3 per cent, stating: ‘The UK economy is heading into a period of stagflation with high inflation and a recession hitting the economy simultaneously.’

He said the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates to 3 per cent, a move which will increase government debt and hit homeowners.

The Bank of England insists the rise is necessary to try to bring down inflation by next year –  but it comes as Britons face the worse squeeze on household budgets for a generation. 

It said the UK will enter five consecutive quarters of recession with gross domestic product falling as much as 2.1% – compared to 6% per in 2008.

The rise is the largest since the Bank gained independence from the Treasury in 27 years, and the first 0.5 percentage point hike since 1995. The MPC of nine members voted eight to one in favour of a rise to 1.75%.

The rate increase will immediately hit 20 per cent of homeowners with mortgages – around two million people. It will add around £90-a-month to the average mortgage of around £150,000. 80 per cent of homeowners are on fixed deals, so will be protected in the short term, but a third of these people will lose these deals within two years, meaning higher payments are on the horizon for millions more.

The Bank believes that inflation will peak at the end of the year or early 2023 and drop again by 2025

The Bank believes that inflation will peak at the end of the year or early 2023 and drop again by 2025

The Bank of England has increased interest rates from 1.25 per cent to 1.75 per cent

The Bank of England has increased interest rates from 1.25 per cent to 1.75 per cent

A Cornwall Insight forecast shows the energy price cap will stay higher than £3,300 from October to at least the start of 2024 and could even hit £4,000

A Cornwall Insight forecast shows the energy price cap will stay higher than £3,300 from October to at least the start of 2024 and could even hit £4,000

The Bank of England has predicted that inflation will reach 13% in the coming months

The Bank of England has predicted that inflation will reach 13% in the coming months

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson and Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi are on holiday despite warnings of inflation further soaring and of the economy entering the longest recession since the financial crisis.

With ministers taking a back seat as the Tory party is gripped by the leadership contest, both men were away from Westminster when the Bank of England detailed the brutal outlook.

Mr Zahawi was said to be still working and had a call with Governor Andrew Bailey after interest rates were hiked from 1.25 per cent to 1.75 per cent, the biggest increase for 27 years.

But Labour accused the Chancellor and the Prime Minister of being ‘missing in action’ as the cost-of-living crisis deepened further, with the Bank forecasting inflation could peak at 13.3 per cent.

Shadow treasury minister Abena Oppong-Asare said: ‘Families and pensioners are worried sick about how they’ll pay their bills, but the Prime Minister and Chancellor are missing in action.

‘The fact they’re both on holiday on the day the Bank of England forecasts the longest recession in 30 years speaks volumes about the Tories’ warped priorities.’

In a statement, Mr Zahawi said: ‘For me, like I’m sure lots of others, there is no such thing as a holiday and not working. I never had that in the private sector, not in government.

‘Ask any entrepreneur and they can tell you that. Millions of us dream about getting away with our families but the privilege and responsibility of public service means that you never get to switch off, that’s why I have had calls and briefings every day and continue to do so.’

Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokeswoman Layla Moran added: ‘At a time of national crisis we deserve better than these shirkers. Time and again they have been absent in the country’s time of need.

‘The very least the British people can ask for is a Chancellor and Prime Minister who will explain how they got us into this mess and what the plan is to solve it.’

The rising price of gas has been blames for forcing a recession as it hits household and business spending

The rising price of gas has been blames for forcing a recession as it hits household and business spending

A major slowdown in China, which is pursuing zero covid, is also hitting the world economy as the global supply chain tightens

A major slowdown in China, which is pursuing zero covid, is also hitting the world economy as the global supply chain tightens 

This chart lays bare the amount of inflationary pressure caused by expensive wholesale gas prices

This chart lays bare the amount of inflationary pressure caused by expensive wholesale gas prices

research published by the Bank shows that households plan to cut back on spending, fuel use and journeys due to the rising cost of living in the UK

research published by the Bank shows that households plan to cut back on spending, fuel use and journeys due to the rising cost of living in the UK

A growth in household income will be outstripped by rising inflation

A growth in household income will be outstripped by rising inflation

Economics at the think tank say market prices for core goods such as oil, corn and wheat have also now fallen since their peak earlier this year, but these prices have now yet been reflected in consumer costs and remain much higher than in January

Economics at the think tank say market prices for core goods such as oil, corn and wheat have also now fallen since their peak earlier this year, but these prices have now yet been reflected in consumer costs and remain much higher than in January

The value of the pound dropped 0.05% lower against the US dollar at 1.211 shortly after the Bank of England’s rate rise was confirmed, having been 0.7% higher ahead of the announcement.

The pound has dropped 0.5% against the euro to 1.189.

In minutes from the rates decision meeting, the Bank said the majority of the MPC felt a ‘more forceful policy action was justified’.

It said: ‘Against the backdrop of another jump in energy prices, there had been indications that inflationary pressures were becoming more persistent and broadening to more domestically driven sectors.’

‘Overall, a faster pace of policy tightening at this meeting would help to bring inflation back to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, and to reduce the risks of a more extended and costly tightening cycle later,’ the Bank added.

It is yet another blow to personal finances. Inflation hit a 40-year high of 9.4 per cent in June, well over its 2 per cent target.  It could peak at 15 per cent at the start of next year, experts warned amid concerns over a ‘highly uncertain’ outlook largely driven by unpredictable gas prices which are obliterating household budgets.

The dire economic conditions will see real household incomes drop for two years in a row, the first time this has happened since records began in the 1960s. They will drop by 1.5% this year and 2.25% next.

However, the recession will at least be shallower than the 2008 crash, with GDP dropping up to 2.1% from its highest point.

The Bank said the depth of the drop is more comparable to the recession in the early 1990s.

Mr Bailey said there was an ‘economic cost to the war’ in Ukraine.

‘But I have to be clear, it will not deflect us from setting monetary policy to bring inflation back to the 2% target,’ he said.

He admitted that the economic outlook for growth and inflation may be even more grim if energy prices rise higher than the current dire predictions.

He said: ‘Wholesale gas futures prices for the end of this year… have nearly doubled since May,’ he said.

They are ‘almost seven times higher’ than forecasts had suggested a year ago, he added.

‘That’s overwhelmingly a consequence of Russia’s restriction of gas supplies to Europe and the risk of further cuts.’

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