Connect with us

Global Affairs

Global instability: Global plagues bring to its knees a world unable to face them together | International

Voice Of EU

Published

on

A brutal pandemic; frightening climate change; a devastating war that drives widespread rearmament; severe trade disruptions; gigantic multinationals that take advantage of loopholes to avoid paying much-needed taxes. The world faces colossal global challenges that shake it intensely and whose solutions necessarily pass through close international cooperation. As the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, stated at the end of July, with respect to global warming, the dilemma is clear: collective action or collective suicide. However, signs of growing polarization and rift abound, between the West and the authoritarian giants of the East, or between the North and the South of the planet. Against the backdrop of the great geopolitical fracture caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the current situation throws up an unequivocal sequence of alarm signals of different kinds.

The meeting on climate change held in Bonn in mid-June to prepare the COP27 in November in Egypt ended without progress and with acrimony; The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) reported in mid-July that the negotiation it leads to implement a global tax framework for multinationals is delayed and it will not be possible to apply it before 2024 in the best of cases; at the end of July Russia announced that it is withdrawing from the international space station project; the review conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that has begun in New York takes place in the midst of strong geopolitical turmoil that does not induce the greatest optimism; In early August, China announced the breaking off of dialogue with the United States on key issues such as the environment or high-level military meetings in response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

Not all are disasters. The ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO) held in July achieved a consensus statement that, although minimal, represents an important sign of vitality for a badly wounded international institution. A recent deal to allow Ukraine to export grain has begun to bear fruit. The US has approved an important piece of legislation that contemplates investments of more than 300,000 million euros over a decade to facilitate the green transition, a national episode but with great global repercussion. There are inspiring episodes of transnational cooperation, such as the EU anti-pandemic crisis funds.

But the achievements seem insufficient given the magnitude of the crises, and the underlying currents are not at all promising for the near future in the fundamental field of truly global cooperation, apart from national, bilateral or regional initiatives. The stark rivalry between powers hinders the essential constructive attitudes; the economic slowdown encourages selfish instincts; The specter of a new rise of nationalist and protectionist recipes is serious, whether it materializes in the extreme form of a seizure of power —as is likely to happen in September in Italy— or in the inhibiting effect that this strength has on the rulers of another country. political inspiration.

Below is a review of the state of the art in some of the key areas in which global responses to global problems would be necessary – and where, however, more friction than solution is in sight.

Weapons

The war launched by Russia in Ukraine has highlighted, in addition to the impotence of the UN system in cases like this, the seriousness of the collapse of the security architecture that had been built during the Cold War, an important framework of treaties of gun control that set limits, increased transparency, decreased the risk of dangerous misunderstandings. The collapse began two decades ago. In 2002, the United States withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and more recently withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty for a wide range of reasons, while Russia took the lead in withdrawing from the Armed Forces Treaty. conventional in Europe.

This gap is especially serious in a context like the current one, with a clear arms race. World military spending is increasing and, for the first time in decades, according to SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), nuclear arsenals are on the way to not only a qualitative improvement, but also a quantitative one. “We have to be aware that the lack of dialogue on nuclear risks and arms control between powers is in itself dangerous, because it makes it easier to misunderstand and miscalculate in a crisis,” says Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Washington-based Gun Control Association.

A Chinese soldier observes the movements of a frigate during maneuvers in the Strait of Formosa on August 5.
A Chinese soldier observes the movements of a frigate during maneuvers in the Strait of Formosa on August 5.Lin Jian (AP)

This dangerous trend has been seriously accentuated by the recent breakdown in dialogue between Beijing and Washington. If the conflictive relationship between the West and Russia is worrying given the high military potential at the Kremlin’s disposal, the deterioration with China is even more so. The Asian giant will most likely be a 21st century hyperpower. He is determined to develop war-fighting capabilities commensurate with that status and is traditionally reluctant to engage in arms-control deals in the style of those that helped keep the Cold War from turning hot.

“Unlimited spending on increasingly sophisticated military equipment only fuels an arms race that no one can ultimately win. We need to get back to a point where the major powers are engaged in a constant and fruitful dialogue,” Kimball continues. “With Russia the relationship is broken, and as for China, Washington should recognize that its actions can have a negative influence and Beijing should understand that the US has concerns about its behavior.”

The current NPT review conference in New York is a perfect compendium of the difficulties that complicate the road in this sector. The nuclear powers recognized by the Treaty are in the midst of massive efforts to modernize their arsenals. Russia and North Korea make thinly veiled threats to use it. Iran is leaps and bounds closer to having the capabilities to have a nuclear weapon if it wanted to. Dozens of countries, meanwhile, have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. But both the dialogue between nuclear powers and that between them and the abolitionists seem very complex. A final consensus statement from the conference looms as virtually impossible. The hope is that at least a declaration backed by a “supermajority,” as Kimball defines it, will come about. This, however, is “possible, but not likely,” acknowledges the expert.

Climate change

Nor does it seem likely that the world will make coordinated and consistent progress in the fight against climate change in the near future. While the brutal heat waves that hit Europe ―with terrible droughts and fires that devastate the territory― remind us of the urgency of speeding up the task of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, multiple dark elements accumulate on the table .

Political action in the US to facilitate the green transition is extremely important and will increase the pace of US emission reductions. However, as important as it is, the package is not even enough, according to expert calculations, to meet the 2030 emission reduction goals assumed by the Joe Biden Administration. Meanwhile, disruptions in the energy market linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine have precipitated a return to coal in several European countries. China, for its part, has increased the pace of permitting the construction of new coal plants very consistently, according to a Greenpeace report. In the first quarter of 2022, plants for a power of 8.6 gigawatts were authorized, almost half of the capacity approved throughout 2021, when Xi Jinping gave a boost to strongly advance decarbonization. The breakdown of cooperation between Washington and Beijing in this section is a huge blow, as they are the two main emitters.

Several people walk through the reservoir of La Viñuela (Malaga), which is at 12% of its capacity.
Several people walk through the reservoir of La Viñuela (Malaga), which is at 12% of its capacity.García-Santos

“We live in a very complex context, of concatenated crises that interact. In this context, energy security is emerging as the preponderant variable over the others. Short-term signals are undesirable. And, in the general picture, the commitments made to reduce emissions are clearly insufficient. Even so, we are much better off than a decade ago thanks to the legislative and executive framework that has been built to tackle the energy transition”, observes Lara Lázaro, principal investigator at the Elcano Royal Institute and an expert in the field.

The difficulties in international cooperation in this sector and at this time were exposed at the meeting held in Bonn in mid-June to prepare the COP27 scheduled for November in Egypt, which ended without tangible progress. If, on the one hand, the need for energy security drives polluting bets in the short term, and the economic slowdown stirs up East-West competition, the Bonn meeting illustrated, on the other hand, the validity of the pulse between the North and the South , with the latter accusing the former of not fully assuming its responsibility for the damage caused to all as a great historical polluter. The issue of mobilizing aid to developing countries to deal with this impact is an open wound.

The decision of the G-7 held in Germany at the end of June to accept exceptions to the commitment to avoid public investment in the fossil fuel sector caused much concern among the supporters of a decisive acceleration in the fight against climate change. The taxonomy recently approved by the EU, according to which gas is cataloged in a green label that favors investments, also caused controversy.

“At COP26 in Glasgow, among other things, it was proposed to reach COP27 with revised objectives. But I see it unlikely that Europe will get there with greater goals. Perhaps more closed implementation plans. Nor do I see the US or China arrive with increased objectives. Egypt will hold the presidency in a devilish context”, comments Lázaro.

The pandemic

Contributing to the devilish context is a pandemic that has prostrated the planet for two and a half years. The situation is clearly better than in the previous summer thanks to the deployment of the vaccines, but the emergency cannot be considered resolved nor, above all, the way of dealing with it shows the desirable signs of an effective international cooperative attitude.

The WHO (World Health Organization) continues to record around 15,000 weekly deaths from covid this summer, and the disruptions to the economy due to confinements, as China shows, are consistent. At this point, Africa still has a proportion of citizens with full guideline of only 20%. The north-south gap and west-east distrust mark this scenario.

“The international reports that have been prepared – such as that of the Monti commission, to which I was linked – coincide in indicating that the north-south international response has been clearly insufficient and not very supportive”, comments Rafa Bengoa, former Minister of Health of the Government Vasco, former director of the WHO health systems area and currently co-director of the Institute of Health and Strategy.

“Many countries, including Spain, are trying to provide both vaccines and medicines and infrastructure to the countries of the south, but this has been slow, it is not going at the speed at which the virus is going. We are playing more to the security of the north than to the solidarity that we should have, “says the expert.

The most visible combat scenario has been that of the release of intellectual property from vaccine patents. India and South Africa have spearheaded the claim. After a time of uncertainty, the Biden Administration backed the idea. But the issue remains stalled, opposed by several major European producing countries. The recent WTO ministerial conference has addressed the issue in its final consensus statement. However, the result has been considered practically irrelevant by supporters of liberalization and by independent experts. “It doesn’t change things much,” says Uri Dadush, an analyst at the Bruegel think tank, and a former World Bank executive and president of The Economist Intelligence Unit.

In this context, hopes for better international cooperation are pinned on a process launched within the framework of the WHO to outline a new legal framework. “The idea is to have a legal and binding mechanism that goes much further than the international health regulations of 2005, which were established after SARS-1, and which have proven to be insufficient due to lack of teeth,” observes Bengoa.

The expert points out how the WHO faced serious problems in investigating what happened in Wuhan, China, the likely epicenter of the pandemic, because it does not have the power to act without authorization from member countries. “The framework agreement is going to have to say things about these issues.” Once again, the growing mistrust between powers embodied in a traumatic way by the breakdown of the dialogue between Washington and Beijing is emerging as a potential obstacle to endow an international institution with penetrating powers. It should be remembered that Donald Trump, a possible candidate for the next US presidential elections, promoted the withdrawal of his country from the WHO.

Trade

Trade is another area subject to strong tensions for geopolitical reasons or because of the disruptions linked to the pandemic. Precisely under the Trump presidency, the conflict between the US and China fully broke out, in which the arrival of Biden has meant a certain containment, but not a solution. The highest arbitration panel of the WTO for disputes between States is inoperative as the necessary judges have not been appointed, with the United States convinced that the court exceeded its powers in the past. The relationship between the other great world trade giant, the EU, and China is not serene either. The sinking of the investment agreement between the two, once heavily sponsored by Germany, is a symbol of growing suspicion in Europe about Chinese attitudes and excessive interweaving with that market. The Russian war in Ukraine has, of course, been shaken up again, with a wide range of retaliatory sanctions against Russia by some 40 democratic countries.

Still, the recent WTO ministerial conference concluded with a consensus agreement. “This is positive. The WTO is a fundamental institution, and many other ministerial ones ended up without it,” says Dadush, who, however, points out that the agreements found are of a “minimalist” nature, and that the declared intention to reactivate the arbitration panel by 2024 “It doesn’t really commit anyone.”

A man pushes a cart past containers at the Tanjung Priok port in Jakarta, Indonesia, on November 4, 2021.
A man pushes a cart past containers at the Tanjung Priok port in Jakarta, Indonesia, on November 4, 2021.WILLY KURNIAWAN (REUTERS)

Dadush points out that the current turmoil — tariff conflict between the US and China, sanctions on Russia or the UK’s exit from the EU — while significant, nevertheless represents “a small part of global trade.” The expert believes that the most likely future scenario is that of “free trade that will go ahead, a globalization that will continue, with many difficulties and tensions, but without a global trade war.”

The hypothesis of an open war between China and the United States is the only circumstance that can profoundly alter this central perspective, Dadush observes. “But I think that everyone is aware that we cannot afford an open war between Washington and Beijing, that it is necessary to find a modus vivendi, and that is why that is not the most likely scenario,” Dadush continues.

“I also believe that”, he continues, “even if nationalist and protectionist options come to power in Western countries, they will also be limited, in the transition from campaign rhetoric to government action, by the reality that trade is essential. for economic development and pressure from business environments that are often close to right-wing political families. Therefore, I believe that the most realistic scenario is that of free trade that, although with difficulties, will go ahead”. In this sense, it should be noted that the right-wing coalition dominated by protectionist parties that is the favorite to win the elections in Italy issued this week supposedly reassuring signals in the face of the European integration process, in which free trade is a central issue. It will be necessary to see, in case of victory, how much the facts will correspond to the words of now.

Taxation

Another blow to the hopes of finding global solutions to global problems came this July when it was confirmed that the negotiations to implement a global corporate tax system are facing many difficulties and will not be able to conclude this year as many expected. Last year, 140 countries agreed to establish a framework that allows taxes to be collected more fairly from large multinationals that take advantage of their size, the characteristics of their business and jurisdictions with negligible tax levels to avoid paying taxes on their profits. The agreement provides for a minimum corporate tax of 15% and that at least part of the profits of multinationals be registered in the jurisdictions where their clients are, and not where their headquarters are, conveniently located.

But the application in the real world is complex, and the OECD, which is leading the negotiation, has reported that at least one more year will be necessary and the implementation would not be possible before 2024. The legislative package approved this Friday in the US contemplates various tax measures but, as recognized by the Treasury Department itself, promoter of the global agreement, they do not serve to place the country in line with the framework agreed upon in the OECD.

As if the obstacles to global cooperation in all these sections were not already notable, others are on the way, such as the US legislative elections in November, which could break Democratic control of Congress. It is to be hoped that, with the Republicans in control of one or both Houses, Washington’s willingness to cooperate internationally will be diminished, giving yet another turn to a spiral that goes in the opposite direction to the direction required by the plagues that afflict the world.

Source link

Global Affairs

‘Silence is the crime’: Patrice Evra on surviving abuse and his work with the WHO | Global development

Voice Of EU

Published

on

His autobiography had been written and was at the printers when international football star Patrice Evra decided he had something important to add about his life. But first he had to tell his mum. “That was the hardest challenge,” he says. “And I was a 40-year-old man.”

Until that point last year, the former Manchester United and French national team captain had never spoken about being sexually abused by a teacher when he was 13.

Last week the Senegal-born Evra stepped on what he called “the most famous podium in the world” – the stage of the UN general assembly in New York – to speak about the abuse and his decision to take up a new role campaigning for the protection of children, especially in Africa. That moment, he says, and the standing ovation for his impassioned call for action, meant more to him than any of the trophies he accumulated in his world-class football career.

“People were in shock when I wrote this in my book. So I wanted to share,” Evra says. This year the former player visited several African countries with the World Health Organization (WHO), speaking in schools and meeting survivors of abuse.

“I’d started to be on social media and, OK, I’m a bad singer, but every time I did a video I was singing and people were starting to say to me that this helped them. So I thought, ‘OK, I can do more than that,’ and I started working with the WHO, to go to Africa.

Patrice Evra speaks at the UN general assembly.
Patrice Evra speaks at the UN general assembly. Photograph: Loey Felipe/UN Photo

“I met a lot of survivors. I’m just in a learning process. Just because I experienced sexual violence at the age of 13 doesn’t mean I know everything. So it was pretty simple, to start to talk.

“Abuse is taboo, but I love everything taboo, bring it on. In African culture, for a black person it can be even difficult to talk about love. I never saw my mum kissing my dad. I never saw that. So for an African person to have succeeded in his life and then talk about things like this, they were in shock.

“I went to a school, the teacher asked the kids, ‘Do you think it’s possible for a black person to be abused?’ They all said no. Then I shared my story. They couldn’t believe it. For them it was impossible for a man.”

Evra says his retirement from professional football in July 2019 was a catalyst. For starters he learned to cry.

“I grew up thinking that crying was a weakness but actually now I understand that you actually should cry. You should share your emotion. Women are 10 years in advance, maybe more … but men should cry.

“It would have been too difficult to show emotion when I was still playing. I remember once with a team, we were on a plane and there was a player and he was watching a movie and he was crying and I was like, ‘Why are you crying?’ He said, ‘This movie, I’ve watched it five times and it always makes me cry.’

“My first reaction was to turn to my teammates and say, ‘This guy cannot play a game of football. This is weak.’ But now I am a different man, I would watch this movie with him and I would cry with him. But back then, for me it was impossible.”

Evra playing for Manchester United against Arsenal in the English Premier League, 2011.
Evra playing for Manchester United against Arsenal in the English Premier League, 2011. Photograph: Eddie Keogh / Reuters/REUTERS

Evra did not speak out even when the police officers investigating his abuser contacted him. “I remember at 24 I was playing for Monaco and the police called me and said, ‘We have had some complaints about this man, do you know anything?’, and I said no. So I lied. You don’t want to deal with it.”

It was when he was watching a documentary on paedophilia with his partner, the Danish model Margaux Alexandra, that the realisation came. “She saw my face and I just let my emotions out and I said, ‘You know what, I think I have to put it in the book.’

“For my mum, she was devastated. To that 13-year-old kid, now a grown man and facing her, she kept saying, “I’m sorry, I’m sorry”, but I said, ‘No mum, I’m OK, I’m fine.’ And that is why I don’t call myself a victim, I’m a survivor.

“You feel shame, you feel guilty. I just blocked it. I said: ‘Mum, I don’t even remember his face … I don’t want any pity for myself.’

“When I was captain of Manchester United or the French national team, people always saw me as someone who never showed their emotion and [they] say that’s because I am from the street and tough, but actually it’s because of this trauma that I was this way.”

Evra’s father was a diplomat and moved the family from Senegal to Brussels when Evra was one, before settling in the Paris suburb of Les Ulis two years later.

“School is normally a place where I should have been safe. I should have had someone protect me … I didn’t have it. It was instead a place that took all my emotion away. It was difficult for me to trust people after that,” he says.

On top of growing up in a difficult neighbourhood – with 23 siblings and half-siblings – Evra also had the deep-seated racism prevalent in Europe’s football clubs to contend with.

Racism was really tough,” he says. “I played in Italy when I was 17 and I was the only black player in the league. I had the whole thing of monkey noises and people throwing bananas. For me, it made me think, ‘I’m going to hurt you in a different way, on the pitch.’ The racism was not bad at Manchester United but of course it is there. Even when England had the three black players who missed the penalties, on social media it was just crazy. It’s not only England [but] in France too: when you play well you are a French player, when you play badly you are a Senegalese player.

Evra answers questions at a UN side event about child protection.
Evra answers questions at a UN side event about child protection. Photograph: Joe Short

“Silence is the crime. For racism, for abuse. When they tried to do the Super League, I see everyone talking about this with such energy and I’m thinking, ‘Why don’t we have this energy to tackle racism?’”

Globally, WHO estimates that up to 1 billion children aged two to 17 will have experienced physical, sexual, or emotional violence or neglect in the past year.

Evra, a father himself, says something must be done. “We have to end the violence. We are talking about many things but I don’t hear about ending the violence against children. Why is it so taboo?

“The support is important to end the violence, everyone experiences violence in their childhood. We need to support the family. We need to hear the stories of survivors. This is the start.”

In the UK, Rape Crisis offers support for rape and sexual abuse on 0808 802 9999 in England and Wales, 0808 801 0302 in Scotland, or 0800 0246 991 in Northern Ireland. In the US, Rainn offers support on 800-656-4673. In Australia, support is available at 1800Respect (1800 737 732). Other international helplines can be found at ibiblio.org/rcip/internl.html

Source link

Continue Reading

Global Affairs

How Budget Deficit May Become a Real Problem for US

Voice Of EU

Published

on

https://sputniknews.com/20220927/how-budget-deficit-may-become-a-real-problem-for-us-1101287626.html

feedback@sputniknews.com

+74956456601

MIA „Rosiya Segodnya“

2022

News

en_EN

Sputnik International

feedback@sputniknews.com

+74956456601

MIA „Rosiya Segodnya“

https://cdnn1.img.sputniknews.com/img/105550/74/1055507458_106:0:1813:1280_1920x0_80_0_0_3dd5712d812d8f59bbbba407c8d5adbd.jpg

Sputnik International

feedback@sputniknews.com

+74956456601

MIA „Rosiya Segodnya“

us, opinion, budget deficit, inflation, recession, us federal reserve, joe biden, us midterm elections

us, opinion, budget deficit, inflation, recession, us federal reserve, joe biden, us midterm elections

Subscribe

International
India

President Joe Biden’s plan to slash student loan debt could cost US taxpayers about $400 billion, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said on September 26. This did not, however, prevent congressional negotiators from agreeing on nearly $12 billion in new military and economic assistance to Ukraine.

“The US budget deficit is an old story,” said Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, a US economist and ex-assistant secretary of the Treasury under Ronald Reagan. “The ‘Reagan deficits’ (approximately $200 billion) according to critics were supposed to collapse the US economy in 1982-84. In 2020, the US budget deficit was $3,100 billion – 15 times larger. In 2021 the deficit was $2,800 billion. This year it is projected to be $1,000 billion but will be much larger as the Federal Reserve is driving the economy into recession.”

However, US citizens do not appear concerned by the mounting numbers since they have been hearing about large and growing budget deficits all their lives and nothing yet has happened, the economist remarks.

To complicate matters further, the deficit issue has become a “rhetorical shell game” for the government, the Washington Post’s Glenn Kessler wrote last week. For instance, earlier this month President Joe Biden bragged about cutting the $350 billion budget deficit last year, “but the reality is he’s increased the budget deficit, not reduced it,” Kessler highlighted.
Thus, the budget deficit was expected to decline $875 billion in 2021, but Biden’s additional COVID relief and other new policies resulted in a more modest decline of $360 billion. At the same time, the US president’s decision to reduce student debt for millions could cost somewhere between $400 billion and $600 billion over a decade, according to some estimates. In addition, there are “unexpected emergencies,” such as the Ukraine conflict, which put pressure on the federal budget, Kessler remarked, citing a new accounting by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which claims that an additional $4.8 trillion in borrowing has been added in the 2021-2031 period under Biden.
Dollar bills are deposited in a tip box, May 24, 2021 in New York. - Sputnik International, 1920, 21.09.2022

How the US Fed Rate Hike May Backfire on Global Economy

“As long as the dollar is the reserve currency and is used to settle most international payments, the US deficits are financed by countries holding their foreign reserves in US dollar securities,” explains Dr. Roberts. “So foreigners finance the US deficit and the Federal Reserve itself buys any overhang. This is why the deficit has not been a problem.”

Still, there are several reasons why the US budget deficit could indeed become a financing problem, according to the economist.

First, the Federal Reserve announced that its current policy is to sell bonds, removing the central bank as a purchaser of US Treasury debt, Dr. Roberts pointed out. Second, US sanctions by abusing the world currency role is causing other countries to move away from using dollars to settle their international transactions. “That means less dollars will find their way into foreign central bank reserves,” the former Reagan official elaborated.

As of yet, however, the US dollar is safe and sound while other reserve currencies – the euro and UK pound – are collapsing due to sanctions-produced energy shortages and possible industry shutdowns, according to the economist. Having sucked the life from the euro and the pound. the greenback remains the preferred and strongest currency. “Until Russia, China, and participating countries create their own payments and clearing system, there remains no alternative to the US dollar,” Dr. Roberts remarked.

Knife crime - Sputnik International, 1920, 26.09.2022

‘Absolutely Hammered’: UK Pound Slides to Its Lowest Level Against US Dollar Since 1971

Greenback’s Strength Not Infinite, Recession to Bite US

While this state of affairs lulls some US politicians into believing that they can rely on the dollar’s strength forever and continue to fund overseas wars, the US’ domestic problems pile up.

“US infrastructure is wearing out,” says Dr. Roberts. “Much of it is financed by local and state governments, and their revenue position has been badly damaged by the offshoring of US manufacturing, which has deprived them of tax revenues while massive influx of immigrant-invaders have pushed up the cost of supporting the illegal entrants. As the federal government permits the entry of millions of illegals, perhaps the federal government should be assuming the related costs instead of sending weapons to Ukraine.”

In addition, soaring prices are eating away at savings and real wages as inflation still remains at a 40-year higher. Polls indicate that inflation has largely become a major concern of voters along with crime. The unfolding situation may deal a heavy blow to the Democratic Party in the November midterms by stripping it of its slim majority in the US Congress. If this happens, it may curb the Biden administration’s political ambitions and disrupt its plans with some Republican lawmakers threatening to impeach the incumbent.
US police crime scene tape - Sputnik International, 1920, 26.09.2022

Crime and Inflation Creating Difficult Headwinds for Democrats Ahead of Midterms, Observers Say
There is yet another problem on the horizon, according to Dr. Roberts. The economist assumes that the Federal Reserve will drag the nation deeper into recession by aggressively increasing interest rates at a time when consumer demand is cooling and the US economy is slowing down.

“The effect of the Federal Reserve’s recession on the deficit will be far greater than the military expenditures for Ukraine, which are mere pocket change,” the former Reagan official notes.

Last week, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points again with its chair, Jay Powell, planning an additional 1.25 percentage points’ worth of increases this year. Even though these interventions could hurt the labor, housing and stock markets, Powell is not going to back down. “I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t,” the Fed chair told journalists last week.



Source link

Continue Reading

Global Affairs

Brazil election: Lula maintains lead over Bolsonaro in final stretch to vote | International

Voice Of EU

Published

on

Brazil’s presidential election is shaping up to be a battle between the far right, represented by the current President Jair Bolsonaro, and the left, which has been gaining ground over the past few years. And with less than a week to go until the first round on October 2, the leftist candidate, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is in the lead. According to poll averages, analyzed by EL PAÍS, the Workers’ Party (PT) candidate holds an advantage of around 10 points over Bolsonaro. But to win the election in the first round and avoid a runoff vote on October 30, he needs to secure more than 50% of the vote. At the moment, he is five points short of this threshold, but he may be able to sway the 7% of voters who are currently undecided or planning to abstain.

Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro has been more or less stable since the beginning of May, when he officially announced he was running for president. The fluctuations in the margin appear to be due more to circumstantial issues, and it is unclear whether they will affect the outcome of the October 2 vote. For now, none of the most recent polls, nor the historical averages calculated by EL PAÍS, give Lula a lead of more than 15 points or show him clearly winning the election in the first round.

The polls indicate that Bolsonaro gained more support when former judge, Sergio Moro, and João Doria, the former governor of São Paulo, pulled out of the race. But this has not appeared to affect Lula’s voter base, which also remained stable after the centrist Simone Tebet and center-left politician Ciro Gomes announced their candidacies. In other words, Lula’s base seems notably less volatile than that of the current president.

For this reason, recent polls have begun to question whether Lula could in fact win the election in the first round. An overwhelming victory at the October 2 vote would also make it more difficult for Bolsonaro to deny the election results, something which he has hinted at doing.

For both Lula and Bolsonaro, the margin between the highest and lowest estimate in the polls is between only six and eight points. This means that even if Lula achieves the lowest estimate and Bolsonaro the highest, the former president would still be in the lead. What’s more, the difference in estimates is partly due to the differing criteria of pollsters and whether estimates include undecided voters. If undecided voters are excluded from the poll averages, Lula would go from winning an estimated 44.9% to 48.2%, while Bolsonaro would receive 37.1% of the vote. In this case, Lula would have an 11-point lead over Bolsonaro, but still not the 51% or more required to win the election in the first round.

In other words, polls show that Lula will lead Bolsonaro in the first round, but will not win enough support to avoid a runoff vote on October 30. There are still days to go before the end of the high-profile campaign, which has been rocked by violence, including threats, harrasment and the murder of Lula supporters at the hands of Bolsonaro backers.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

Join our mailing list to receive the latest news and updates 
directly on your inbox.

You have Successfully Subscribed!