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What will and won’t happen in 2022 • The Register

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Something for the Weekend, Sir? I have been looking intently at my ball again and I’m about to reveal everything.

No doubt you have been plagued by “predictions for the next year in tech” for weeks already. Me too. My first receipt of such crystal balling arrived in my inbox during September, and the 2022 hype brigade has been working flat out ever since. The only way I am going to beat the crowd for sure is to deliver my New Year predictions around July.

But like Easter eggs on Boxing Day, they just get earlier and earlier. So this year, I decided not to compete. That’s why I have left it until now – right at the culmination of the kitchen calendar – to go all Mystic Meg.

Thanks to Brexit, I am no longer burdened under the yoke of European diktat and can reveal not just a bureaucratic Brussels 10 but a good old take-back-control British Imperial 12 predictions for the year ahead. Ha! Take that, you Teutonic twits! Up yours, Delors! etc.

To prevent this article from being more boring that it needs to be, I have split the predictions down the middle: six each of what will happen and what won’t. For this, I needed two crystal balls – another sovereign right previously denied me by the Evil European Empire – and I have been painfully scrying my balls all week. Prepare yourself, dear reader, for Dabbsy’s Duo of Dirty Half-Dozens.

Predictions in tech 2022 part one: ‘Not a chance, pal’

Won’t Happen #1: NFTs decline in popularity

The non-fungible token fad is daft but, hey, it’s a fad: it’s supposed to be. That’s what makes them novel and amusing. When you buy an NFT thing, you don’t really acquire or own it, nor can you easily hang it on the wall or show it to the neighbours when they come round for tea. But that’s irrelevant. What matters is that you believe that you have, and that makes you feel all warm and snuggly and cybercool and such shit. Good for you, I say. Buy some more.

Oh, the fact that several of my good friends and close creative colleagues are riding the crest by selling their artworks as expensive NFTs by the cartload to well-heeled fad-hunters in no way clouds my judgement. My balls do not lie.

Won’t Happen #2: Cryptocurrencies go titsup

Cryptocurrencies are not a fad. They are mad. They make no sense whatsoever, are not secure, and use up vast amounts of electrical power in order to do nothing at all. You can’t even use a cryptocurrency as a currency because nobody wants to spend any in case it doubles in value tomorrow.

But just because there’s a dip in Bitcoin for a week doesn’t signal the imminent demise of cryptos. Commodities do that all the time, then rally later on. It’s a bubble that will never burst, inexplicable though that is.

Won’t Happen #3: The Great Resignation

I read that 64 per cent of professionals are planning to resign if they don’t receive a satisfactory pay increase in the New Year, or are forced to return to an office rather than fuck about watching daytime TV at home. Unless there is a swathe of alternative employers out there who plan to offer high salaries to acquire sulky staff who left their previous workplace in a hissy fit, I don’t think this is going to happen.

On the other hand, I do predict a revival of the labour movement via virtual-workplace organisation.

Won’t Happen #4: You buy a self-crashing car

File this one alongside flying taxis and disposable clothes made from recycled toilet paper. Elon’s claim that he can ensure your safety by looking at your vehicle’s browser history offers no reassurance whatsoever. And driving full electric only seems clever because – in case you hadn’t noticed – we’re not allowed to go anywhere at the moment. Maybe give it another year, eh?

Won’t Happen #5: Augmented Reality finally takes off

AR is fabulous. It’s practical. It’s mature. It works. It doesn’t require you to spend 10 grand dressing up like a Daft Punk cosplayer. What it continues to lack is a killer application to blast it into our everyday lives. The best I’ve read about all year was a claim that AR would revolutionise the takeaway food market by letting lazy diners browse a number 37 with egg fried rice and crispy noodles in 3D. The wait for that AR killer app goes on…

Won’t Happen #6: Passwords replaced by something better

If anything, password alternatives are getting worse. I find I am having to juggle multiple competing proprietary authenticator apps, and I am expected to come up with longer and more complex passwords as time goes on. Added to the challenge is the fact that I roll my own cross-platform password manager via open-source tools rather than hand the keys to my kingdom to private equity businesses.

Worse still, a new trend has arisen for organisations to ditch password protection altogether and force users to retrieve an email and click on a new confirmation link sent every time you want to log into their services.

I confidently predict that your password experience will deteriorate in 2022.

Predictions in tech 2022 part two: ‘Definitely maybe’

Will Happen #1: AI transcription and translation improves massively

Colleagues complain that AI-automated speech transcription systems aren’t accurate enough. Me, I think it’s fucking amazing. And cheap. You can improve the results enormously by buying a half-decent microphone rather than relying on the usual two cans and a piece of string while you record a meeting. It also helps if you face your computer display and speak towards the microphone. Yes, I know this is difficult to do during a meeting while trying to watch daytime TV.

One thing I’m hoping for is that Otter will begin transcribing more languages beyond English. If they don’t do it, someone else will. And it’ll all get better and better through the year.

Will Happen #2: All goods are purchased through crowdfunding

At some point over the last decade, you stopped buying from eBay. You don’t know when or why, it just happened. Then your Amazon consumption dwindled. You now find that most of your significant online purchases are made direct, and increasingly though crowdfunding. Not startups or wacky inventions, but established companies launching standard products and new editions.

In 2022 you will not crowdfund out of the good of your own heart. It will just become a mundane form of online shopping like any other.

Will Happen #3: Everything is designed for ‘better mental health’

Those shoes? “Created to improve holistic well-being.” That wallpaper? “Developed specially with wellness as a priority.” Your next pack of toilet paper? “Optimised to enhance mental health.” It’s enough to drive you nuts.

Will Happen #4: All office chairs are gaming chairs

Office furniture suppliers rank their office chairs for sturdiness and comfort according to how long you sit in them. My “light use” Ikea office chair is nice but only because I’ve smothered it in additional cheap Ikea cushions. Meanwhile, everybody I speak to in online meetings seems to be sitting in the same mock-motorsport gaming chair with a high head-rest and go-faster stripes. I want one. So do you. So will we all in 2022.

Will Happen #5: You get a QR code tattoo while drunk one night

Simple consumer tech such as plugging a USB-C cable into a USB-3 adapter can challenge the older generation but even your gran knows what a QR code is. Seventy years ago, the idea of being marked with a personal code filled people with horror. Fifty years ago, it became a staple of dystopian sci-fi. Today, you have to show yours before you can access the library toilets.

On a New Year binge, you will get so pissed that you will wake up to find a QR code tattooed onto your privates. Look on the bright side: it’ll save you time when using those library toilets.

Will Happen #6: Local craft beers take over the world

Just when you thought the fad would wane, a new generation of wispy bearded and much-tattooed hipsters are founding craft beer breweries. At least six appeared near me in recent months alone, two of them within walking distance from my front door. Those that are not are selling their wares via – you guessed it – crowdfunding sites.

Come to think of it, as the world re-descends into Hell, I might need a drink on the way.

Join me?

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Alistair Dabbs

Alistair Dabbs is a freelance technology tart, juggling tech journalism, training and digital publishing. Each year he quakes in fear at the possibility that one of his predictions will turn out to be accurate. This would make him an “influencer” and it will take a week of wirebrushing to remove the stench. More at Autosave is for Wimps and @alidabbs.



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$2.5m last year • The Register

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Scammers have scammed their fellow cybercriminals out of more than $2.5 million on three dark web forums alone over the last 12 months, according to Sophos researchers.

In a Black Hat Europe session, Sophos threat hunters detailed their investigation, which examined scams on two well-established Russian-language marketplaces, Exploit and XSS. They also looked at BreachForums, which launched in April 2022 after a Europol-led operation shut down the earlier version of the stolen-data souk, RaidForums.

And it turns out that scammers gonna scam, even in the criminal underground.

“We saw referral cons, fake data leaks and tools, typosquatting, phishing, ‘alt rep’ scams (the use of sockpuppets to artificially inflate reputation scores), fake guarantors, blackmail, impersonated accounts, and backdoored malware,” writes Sophos senior security researcher Matt Wixey, in the research posted today. “We even found instances where threat actors got revenge by scamming the scammers who scammed them.”

Scams on these three cybercrime forums are so prevalent that all of them have dedicated “arbitration rooms.”

Exploit, which has about 2,500 reported scams, has two: one for claims and another, the Black List, for confirmed scams. These have been around since the mid-2000s, along with closed Russian attacker forum XSS, which reported around 760 scams on its site, according to Sophos. XSS also keeps a “ripper list” that indexes scam sites.

“Exploit is the worst for scams, both in terms of numbers of reports and money lost to scammers,” Wixey writes. “It does have around twice as many members as XSS, and may also attract more scammers because of its reputation.”

Exploit’s open claims’ room lists 211 claims totaling $1,021,998, while its Black List cited 236 exploits that cost other crooks $863,324. 

In one case, an Exploit user opened an arbitration claim in an attempt to negotiate with ransomware gang Conti about decrypting a company’s assets. Exploit admins, however, closed that claim because ransomware is banned on the marketplace, so apparently there are some standards.

Meanwhile, XSS, for comparison, reported 120 open claims valued at $509,901. BreachForums’ arbitration room, which has only been around since that market opened in April, lists 21 claims worth $143,722.

While higher-end scams on all three forums hit six figures — $160,000 on Exploit and XSS are the most lucrative — some victims on these sites have filed claims for as little as $2, according to Wixey. “Threat actors seem to be as indignant about having their money stolen as anyone else, no matter the amount,” he notes.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the claims processes sometimes descend into name calling, insults and general chaos with the accuser accusing the accused of scamming. In some cases the alleged victims end up getting banned from the sites for being dishonest.

While banning is the most common punishment for ripping off fellow criminals on these forums, BreachForums also publishes banned users’ email address, registration, and last-seen IP address, thus leaving them open for doxxing, the research says. 

However, Sophos also cites a few cases “involving serial scammers” who were banned, and simply created new profiles, paid another registration fee, and carried on with their criminal ways.

As Wixey notes: “If there’s a takeaway from all this, it’s that no user is immune; any trade on criminal forums involves an inherent risk of scams.” ®

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Meet the award-winning geneticist changing patients’ lives

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Prof Sally Ann Lynch talks about the complexity of DNA tests and the work that led to her winning the HRCI Research Impact Award.

Last Thursday (1 December), consultant geneticist Prof Sally Ann Lynch won the inaugural Health Research Charities Ireland (HRCI) Research Impact Award for her contribution to the field of research.

The award highlights the role of health research charities in funding research as well as principal investigators who have participated in the joint funding scheme from HRCI and the Health Research Board.

Lynch’s work, which was supported by the National Children’s Research Centre and the Children’s Health Foundation, Temple Street, was recognised for its real-world impact and for making a positive difference to patients’ lives.

Specifically, Lynch and her team undertook two projects under the scheme, which identified a total of 11 genes that have been responsible for significant health issues for people.

One of these genes, the LARS gene, and its association with a failure to thrive in babies was a brand-new discovery.

With the remaining 10 genes, Lynch discovered new clinical symptoms that were not previously associated with diseases for these genes, from lung disease to neurological conditions.

Lynch told SiliconRepublic.com more about her research, which started 10 years ago.

“We were using new technology to try and make diagnoses in families where routine testing was negative. It was done in collaboration with a team in UCD [University College Dublin],” she said.

“We successfully identified new diagnoses in a number of families using this. Now, this technology forms part of routine diagnostic testing in the investigation of children and adults with various different clinical problems.”

‘I do feel it is important to try and find diagnoses where one hasn’t been found’
– SALLY ANN LYNCH

Lynch said the LARS gene had not been previously recognised as a gene that caused human disease.

“This gene, if it is not working properly, causes children to fail to thrive. Many had evidence of anaemia and liver problems and when these children got a dose of flu or other viral illnesses, they could get very ill and go into liver failure,” she said.

“A colleague working in the metabolic unit in Temple Street had identified a small number of families who had affected children so we collaborated together and received consent from the families to use this new technology to see if we could identify the cause of the liver failure. We found genetic alterations in this gene, LARS.”

The discovery can help many children around the world be diagnosed as well and, while a new treatment has not been developed yet, a greater understanding of the condition can help with day-to-day management.

The challenges around genetic testing

While discoveries such as these can be amazing for diagnostics, medicine and innovations in health, the work is not without its challenges.

Because there is so much variation in DNA, trying to work out if these variations are causing a disease or if they are completely benign can be extremely difficult.

“It is important that due care and attention is paid to genetic test reports as they are not always black and white. The biggest challenge we face is interpreting DNA changes and trying to work out if we have reached a diagnosis or if it still remains elusive,” said Lynch.

She added that DNA tests are often misconstrued as easy to organise and have the ability to give a yes or no answer, when the reality is far more complex.

“DNA tests might give you a diagnosis, they might not give you a diagnosis. Sometimes a gene change is found and no one is sure whether a diagnosis has been reached or not because there is not enough evidence to be completely sure. DNA tests need consent. DNA tests need thought.”

Upon winning the Research Impact Award, Lynch spoke about her passion for solving rare diseases and said that an estimated 300,000 people in Ireland are living with a rare disease.

“Rare diseases undoubtedly get less bite of the funding cherry than other conditions, even though they are more in number and are just as, if not more, challenging. This needs to change.”

She added that identifying new genes is the first step in a long road that will hopefully one day lead to a new treatment.

As part of her research work, Lynch helped produce a handbook, Genetic Testing & Risk Assessment of Rare Disorders, for primary healthcare professionals.

“As a medic, staying still is not OK. I do feel it is important to try and find diagnoses where one hasn’t been found. I do feel I have to keep trying.”

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Infinite lives: the company saving old arcade machines | Games

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On a rural industrial estate five miles outside Honiton, under the flight path of a nearby aerodrome, sits a rather nondescript warehouse. Only one feature marks it out: in front is a graveyard of stripped arcade cabinets, slowly rotting in the cold and damp.

I am here to visit Play Leisure, a company that restores and sells old arcade games. It has a compelling TikTok account where it shares new discoveries – a recent post showed off a Deadstorm Pirates machine with its enormous sit-in cabinet and giant cinematic display. I’ve dragged my friend and fellow arcade fanatic Joao Sanches along, and now I’m feeling nervous and responsible because, walking up to the unmarked entrance, I’ve no idea if they will have anything interesting in stock after our 90-minute drive.

But peering inside, I spot it immediately, sat there in the cramped reception area amid piles of cardboard boxes: a pristine 1992 Street Fighter II machine, the backboard sporting a wild illustration of Ryu kicking Ken, each special feature on the playfield named after famous Street Fighter attacks. I almost gasp.

Matt Conridge, the owner of Play Leisure, has always been interested in arcade machines. “Like a lot of us in our 30s and 40s, it comes from back when I was a kid,” he explains as he comes to greet us. “I used to visit arcades at seaside resorts – places like Dawlish and Lynmouth.”

Matt Conridge, the owner of Play Leisure.
‘It comes from back when I was a kid’ … Matt Conridge, the owner of Play Leisure. Photograph: Joao Diniz Sanches

Three years ago, Conridge was running a video game bar in Bideford, north Devon, when Covid hit. Facing disaster, he decided to close up and use his contacts in the arcade scene to pivot into a new project: restoration. He rented a warehouse, employed a small team of specialist engineers and started buying up all the old coin-ops he could get his hands on. The plan was to repair them and sell them on to private collectors and retro theme bars, after the pandemic.

“Back then, we were only buying small quantities so it usually came from collectors. Now we take them on an industrial scale,” says Conridge. “At the moment, with what’s happening in the economy, arcades are cutting costs, getting rid of some of the lower performing machines that cost them more to run than they make in revenue. We get clearances from arcades, play centres, trampoline parks … ”

Another problem is that older coin-ops require specialist engineers to maintain them. “A lot of the people who used to build and service these machines have retired,” says Conridge. “That knowledge is dying.”

Matt takes us through to the main warehouse space, where we’re momentarily stunned again. Crammed into a space about the size of a tennis court are 200-odd arcade machines from throughout gaming history. The first thing I spot is the twin cabinet version of Sega’s brilliant 1995 racing game Manx TT Super Bike, which allowed players to sit on reproduction motorcycles and compete against each other along narrow country lanes. Nearby there’s Konami’s thrilling Silent Scope 2: Fatal Judgement, complete with its authentic sniper rifle controller, and further back in this electronic labyrinth is a twin cab of Final Furlong, the crazy Namco horse racing game that you control by sitting on a plastic horse and jumping up and down.

I’m taken back to the first time I visited Japan in 2000 to attend the Tokyo Game Show. I walked into an arcade in Akihabara and saw salarymen on their lunch hour, dozens of them in rows playing this game, grimacing with effort in the darkness.

The warehouse has about 200 arcade machines from throughout gaming history.
The warehouse has about 200 arcade machines from throughout gaming history. Photograph: Joao Diniz Sanches

The machines arrive in huge shipping containers and Conridge is never quite sure what games he’ll find or what condition they will be in. “The problem is, arcade operators don’t generate any more money by keeping machine internals clean,” he says. “If you open it up and start cleaning the inside you may end up causing issues. We’ve opened them and found coins, tools … We found a porno mag in the back of a machine once. We’ve just got one from Blackpool, a crane machine that dispensed sweets – it’s been left for a few years and the sweets have fallen inside and rotted, then the flies got in there … ugh.”

Will they clean that? “No,” laughs Conridge. “We’ll sell it off and let someone else deal with it.”

Conridge is however, conscientious about whom he sells brittle older machines to. “There are some retro machines that we advise people not to buy unless they’re technically minded,” he says. “There’s a pinball machine, a 1966 electromechanical model we’re just about to put on sale, and we’ll refuse to sell that to nine out of 10 people who contact us because we know it won’t be suitable for them. These machines are like classic cars: they are specialist pieces of equipment and need constant care. If I sell it to someone who just wants a working machine, they’ll be fed up after five minutes – we’ve got to choose the right customer for it. Someone who is able to tinker.”

It’s not just ancient pinball machines that are problematic. The big video arcade games of the 1990s – the technical peak of the industry – often used proprietary hardware that is simply impossible to replace or reproduce. “The Sega Model arcade boards used custom Lockheed Martin chips, which you just can’t source,” explains Chris, the lead engineer. “We have to decide whether to harvest parts from less interesting games and use them to resupply classics like Sega Rally.” Around the outskirts of the warehouse space, there are shelves groaning under the weight of esoteric parts, haphazardly piled or collected in boxes.

Lining the warehouse are shelves of esoteric parts.
Lining the warehouse are shelves of esoteric parts. Photograph: Joao Diniz Sanches

Adding to the value of these machines now is the fact that arcades historically dumped old units when they stopped being profitable. “Ten to 15 years ago companies just didn’t foresee that there would be any interest from collectors,” says Conridge. “We just sold an Addams Family pinball machine for £10,000 – that would have been chucked in a skip 15 years ago. People didn’t expect anyone would want them.”

This was especially true of larger speciality machines, such as rhythm action games, with their bulky floor pads and complicated controllers, and driving games with their realistic race car cabinets. Not only did they take up valuable floor space, they were expensive to maintain. Their growing rarity represents an interesting challenge for Play Leisure, because games like Dance Mania and Guitar Hero are exactly the sorts of machines that the new era of retro gaming bars – such as the NQ64 chain, which has just taken on £2m of funding – are looking for: not only are they fun to play in a bar environment, they’re fun to watch, too. “Dance Mania is now a £3k machine,” Conridge says.

When cabinets arrive, their condition is assessed. For Conridge there is a delicate balance between restoration and preservation. He shows me a Point Blank machine that’s just come in: Namco’s entertaining light gun shooter, which was also popular on the PlayStation, is a currently a hit with buyers. He will aim to repair these machines whatever state they arrive in – even though the guns themselves, with their delicate recoil mechanic, are often busted beyond repair (“they get really smashed by kids in the arcade”).

On this cabinet, the lavishly illustrated decals on the sides are peeling off: do they change the artwork for a modern reproduction? “If we do, it will look better but it won’t be original,” says Conridge. “It’s a challenge. We don’t tend to sell perfect-looking machines. When we went into arcades as children, the machines would have cigarette burns – that’s how you remember them. There’s a certain charm to that.”

‘I almost gasp’ … at the sight of the classic arcade game Street Fighter II.
‘I almost gasp’ … classic arcade game Street Fighter II. Photograph: Joao Diniz Sanches

Some arcade cabinets are not economically viable to repair, but that doesn’t mean they’re unsellable. “We sell quite a lot of project machines,” he says. “For a collector working in their garage, that’s fine. We had a Star Wars 1982 Atari machine come in about 14 months ago. We put it on TikTok and Facebook – someone rang and they were desperate for it. It was nice to save this original machine from being scrapped.”

If they can’t be repaired, they’re stripped for parts: circuit boards, cathode ray monitors, joysticks, motors. Almost none of these are manufactured any more, so they’re all saved. Even completely stripped cabinets can have value: people often use them as a shell for their own arcade machines, using a PC and LED monitor. “Our customers can be really creative,” says Conridge. “We have people turning them into cocktail cabinets, stands for DVD players and games consoles. It’s nice because they’re not ending up in a landfill site – they’re getting another life.”

Conridge reckons half his machines go to retro bars and modern arcades. The rest are bought by private collectors. There’s a highly active arcade-collecting community, based around Discord servers and forums such as UKVAC, and Covid brought in a lot of new customers who started building gaming dens in the midst of lockdown.

Besides retro pinball tables and 1990s hits, the big sellers are attached to film or TV licences. Play Leisure has sold three Star Wars Battle Pods, really big immersive machines, for £10,000 each. An Aerosmith-branded arcade game named Revolution X will sell for £1,500, an X-Files pinball table for £3,500. There’s an odd market too for old coin-pushing machines, mostly thanks to the TV quiz show Tipping Point and the growing popularity of TikTok accounts that specialise in coin-pushing live streams.

Close-up of game instructions.
‘It’s nice because they’re not ending up in a landfill site – they’re getting another life.’ Photograph: Joao Diniz Sanches

Joao and I spend the whole day here, snaking between the machines, peering into their exposed innards. We photograph everything. A long time ago we worked together on the video game magazine Edge, often reporting on arcade shows – these machines, which are now antiques, were the newest, hottest tech when we started our careers.

And before that, as a kid, I hung out in arcades in the 1980s. Donkey Kong, Defender, Space Harrier, Out Run; a pocket full of 10 pence coins, a whole day to waste. It is bittersweet to see the machines here, their CRT monitors cracked or missing, light gun holsters worn and split.

It is good that these things are being saved. To many of us, these are more than just disposable commercial products: they are works of art containing within them the experiences of thousands of players, my own included.

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