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House price inflation expected to hit 12% before falling back in 2022

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House price inflation is likely to climb to 12 per cent this year before falling back sharply in 2022 as supply comes on and affordability constraints kick in, the chief executive of DNG estate agents has said.

Keith Lowe said the current uptick in prices was being driven by Covid-related factors such as increased savings; the return of expatriates; and “right-sizing” .

There are also significantly fewer homes being advertised for sale, he said, noting that the number of houses available to buy nationally – as of August 1st – was 31 per cent lower than at the same point last year and 20 per cent lower in Dublin.

These factors were likely to push annual house price growth to as high as 12 per cent in the coming months, he said.

The latest official figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), which are based on actual transactions rather than valuations, put the annual rate of growth at 6.9 per cent in June, the highest level for 2½ years.

Mr Lowe said the official gauge was about three months behind as it typically took three month to close a house sale.

DNG chief executive Keith Lowe said the Covid surge in prices was transitory and would unwind over the next two quarters. Photograph: Cyril Byrne
DNG chief executive Keith Lowe said the Covid surge in prices was transitory and would unwind over the next two quarters. Photograph: Cyril Byrne

However, he said the Covid surge in prices was transitory and would unwind over the next two quarters, resulting in a significantly lower level of price growth next year. He predicted house price inflation in 2022 would be in the low single digits, 4-5 per cent.

The main moderating influence is likely to be the pick-up in supply, he said, noting new home completions are expected to be in the region of 21,000 this year, increasing to 23,000 in 2022 and 26,500 in 2023.

Second-hand market

Supply in the second-hand market is also likely to increase as confidence returns to the sellers’ market. He said many people, particularly older people, have been scared to put their homes up for sale during the pandemic.

The other check on house price growth is likely to be affordability, Mr Lowe said. “If you can only borrow 3.5 times your salary – noted there are exceptions – that is going to control house price growth,” he said.

Many had predicted property values would decline as a result of the pandemic but the exact opposite has occurred.

Property websites MyHome.ie and Daft.ie both recorded a major pick-up in headline inflation in their latest quarterly reports as the demand for homes outstripped supply.

MyHome, which is owned by The Irish Times, said the typical asking price for a home nationally rose by 13 per cent to €303,000 in the second quarter, breaking the €300,000 mark for the first time. In Dublin the typical asking price was €412,000, up 10.6 per cent year on year.

Daft also put the annual rate of house price inflation at 13 per cent, its highest since early 2015, noting the average price of a home on its website rose by €34,000 to €284,000 year on year in the second quarter.

The official rate of price growth – as recorded by the CSO – is significantly lower as it is based on actual transactions derived from stamp-duty data filed with Revenue and not asking prices.

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Viral Russian Parody of Smash Hit ‘Hideaway’ Depicts Typical Village Life (Music Video)

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And on a lighter note …

One of upsides of life in Russia is the rich sense of humor here.  

Here’s a parody of “Hideaway” by Canadian pop diva Kiezsa, (original video below) which gave the previously unknown starlet an astounding 90 million views on Youtube within 3 months of its release in February 2014.

The parody was made by the amateur comic dance duo, “Bonya and Kuzmich” of Perm, a provincial Russian city 800 km east of Moscow.  

It has 5 million views on the Russian internet, but hasn’t really broken out into an international audience. 

Before discovering internet stardom, Bonya was a shoe saleswoman, and Kuzmich a cafeteria cook in Perm.

It has a lot of witty references to Russian country life.

Enjoy!

Here’s the original by Kiezsa:


This post first appeared on Russia Insider

Anyone is free to republish, copy, and redistribute the text in this content (but not the images or videos) in any medium or format, with the right to remix, transform, and build upon it, even commercially, as long as they provide a backlink and credit to Russia Insider. It is not necessary to notify Russia Insider. Licensed Creative Commons


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German doctor faces charges after administering thousands of self-made vaccines

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A millionaire German doctor is facing criminal charges after vaccinating an estimated 20,000 people with a self-developed vaccine against Covid-19.

Some 200 people were queueing for a jab at the airport in the northern city of Lübeck on Sunday when police arrived and closed down the improvised vaccination centre.

A police spokesman said doctors had already administered about 50 vaccines: not from BioNTech or Moderna or another recognised producer, but a home brew by Dr Winfried Stöcker.

The controversial doctor, who is also the owner of Lübeck airport, insists his jab is 97 per cent effective against Covid-19.

Dr Stöcker was not present, did not administer vaccinations and faces no charges, according to his lawyer Wolfgang Kubicki, a leading member of Germany’s Free Democratic Party (FDP), which is part of Berlin’s new coalition government.

Lübeck state prosecutors see things differently. On Monday, they announced an investigation into four doctors, aged between 61 and 81, for involvement in the unauthorised vaccination centre.

Dr Stöcker may also face legal action for running an unlicensed vaccination campaign, which is considered a criminal offence under Germany’s Medicines Act. 

Contacted by the Bild tabloid, Dr Stöcker said he had not submitted his vaccine for approval because the process would “take too long and cost millions”.

“We have a responsibility to the patients, not the state, but the police stopped everything,” said the 74-year-old.

In May 2020 Dr Stöcker claimed to have developed a traditional vaccine – without any external assistance – similar to that used against tetanus, using inactive pathogen cells to activate the body’s immune system.

The doctor says he tested the jab on himself and some 100 volunteers before rolling out the vaccinations around the country. In total, he claims some 20,000 people have received a dose of his vaccine.

“Some 2,000 of them are under observation, no side effects were noted to date,” he said. “There were virus breakthroughs in 10 people.”

‘Lubecavax’

On his website, he says his “Lubecavax”, a three-dose vaccine, has proven highly effective. Some 376 friends and colleagues were vaccinated with the substance during the summer, he wrote, and “97 per cent developed high concentrations of antibodies against coronavirus”.

“In our view the ‘Lübeck vaccine’ is safe, effective and presumably the most suitable vaccine for children,” he adds in a blog post. “Doctors have the right to mix together compounds that they believe will help people.”

In this assertion he is drawing on a 2000 German constitutional court ruling which forbade federal authorities from prohibiting an experimental treatment of two doctors using stem cells.

News of the rogue vaccination has horrified German medical authorities. The Paul Ehrlich Institute, which is responsible for approval of medicines and vaccines in Germany, said on Monday it had offered Dr Stöcker assistance with testing in September and December of last year, but that he had not responded to the institute’s offers.

The hurdles to vaccination licensing “are deliberately high”, the institute added, “to ensure the maximum possible security for participants in clinical trials”.

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Denmark school closes due to suspected Omicron Covid-19 case

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Odense Municipality confirmed the closure in a statement on Monday after informing parents and pupils on Sunday evening.

The Danish Patient Safety Authority (Styrelsen for Patientsikkerhed) said on Monday morning that the case is suspected of being linked to the new Omicron variant.

READ ALSO: Denmark does not rule out new travel restrictions after Omicron variant detected

The authority recommends contact tracing up to “third” contacts, or people who have been in contact with suspected close contacts to the confirmed or “first” case.

Pupils and teachers in the same class as the confirmed or “first” case are considered “second” contacts, with close contacts to the class the “third” link.

People who fall into these categories are asked to isolate at home until they have tested negative on the fourth and sixth days since the potential contact.

The school is closed as of Monday while contact tracing is undertaken.



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